RUSSIAN EXPERT: AZERBAIJAN HAS SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM BY MILITARY MEANS

Today
84.html
May 7 2010
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with Russian political expert, professor at Journalism
Department at the St. Petersburg State University Dmitry Gavra.

During his upcoming visit to Turkey, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev
is likely to discuss Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Turkish PM Erdogan
among other issues. In your opinion, how serious can the meeting be
in this context?

I am sure that the Karabakh issue will indeed be on the agenda
of Medvedev-Erdogan talks while it will not be linked to the
Turkish-Russian bilateral relations and painful points like Nabucco,
BTC and others. But Dmitry Medvedev needs foreign-policy breakthrough
as a peacemaker. So, Russia, in my view, will try to work with Erdogan
so that ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols will take into
account everything related to the Karabakh conflict settlement.

In your opinion, what Armenia is so much afraid of? Why it does not
want to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh, though it will have positive
impact on the Armenian economy and the lives of ordinary people in
the country?

Let’s start with the fact that Azerbaijan is becoming a structure
close to the concept of a regional superpower. Azerbaijan has recovered
from all the problems of 1990s. It rearms its army.

Azerbaijan is becoming stronger. Today Azerbaijan has sufficient
strength to solve the problem by military means. In this context,
Armenia’s fear is obvious.

The Armenian diaspora overseas, especially in France, is far more
intransigent on the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh than the Armenian
government. Armenia’s economy is largely dependant on the diaspora. In
this respect, it is very difficult for Serzh Sargsyan to balance
desires of the diaspora and real state of affairs. After all, events
that happened a century ago are very painful for the diaspora.

Can we expect progress in resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
in 2010?

In my opinion, to a considerable extent, the key to the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement is located in Ankara, rather
than in Moscow, because Russia does not have such a resource to
impact Armenia as Ankara. The conflict resolution may see progress if
Washington and Moscow make economic arguments in favor of improving
relations with neighbors clear for Armenia.

The Armenian economy is in tough situation. If Turkey opens borders
with Armenia and Armenia, in turn, normalizes relations with
Azerbaijan, Armenia will be much independent. Indeed, Ankara should
tell it Armenia as key to solving the problem lies precisely in the
capital of Turkey.

However, I believe that a "breakthrough" in the settlement process is
hardly the right word. Here one should move step by step. Let’s first
recognize those positions for which today we have to negotiate. Let us
fully recognize the responsibility for Khojaly. Let’s get away from
emotions. Let’s talk about the problems of disengagement. One must
move from political statements to concrete steps. That is possible …

In your view, will high-level meeting on resolution of the Karabakh
conflict held soon?

It should be noted that Azerbaijan has announced that it accepts
the updated Madrid principles, and today further progress in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement depends on Armenia. In turn,
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said he was willing to act as
guarantor that the interests of all parties were satisfied. If such a
meeting takes place, it can be a good chance to make a very important
step toward resolving the conflict. Updated Madrid principles are a
chance to break the deadlock.

The meeting requires goodwill of presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Though Serzh Sargsyan has announced that ratification of the
Armenia-Turkey protocols are suspended, Armenia has not quit the
process. So, movements are possible.

Much now depends on the vigor of Russia and personally, Dmitry
Medvedev. Recently we have seen foreign breakthroughs by the Russian
President. I mean the agreement on the Black Sea Fleet with Ukraine,
the START treaty with the United States, finally, an agreement with
Norway on delimitation of the continental shelf. It is clear that
Dmitry Medvedev is becoming a number one man in Russian foreign
policy. It is important to now this energy was directed to the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.