‘MINSK GROUP NEGOTIATIONS ARE DEADLOCKED AT THE MOMENT’

news.az
May 7 2010
Azerbaijan

Thomas de Waal ‘There are deeper problems with the negotiations.’

The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group met in a closed meeting
to discuss the current state of negotiations between Armenia and
Azerbaijan on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Thomas de Waal, senior
associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explains
where negotiations stand today.

What are the principle issues that still need to be resolved in the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

The fundamental unresolved issue in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is
the same one that triggered the conflict back in Soviet times in the
Gorbachev era in February 1988: the status of the disputed territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh itself. The Karabakh Armenians – who have been in full
control of the territory and surrounding regions since fighting ended
between the two sides in 1994 – insist that Karabakh be recognized
either as independent or unified with Armenia, while the Azerbaijani
authorities demand that it is a de jure part of Azerbaijan and must be
reaffirmed as such. The document on the table attempts to resolve this
issue with creative ambiguity about postponing the issue of status,
but the two sides still have polarized positions and will not move
until they get greater clarity supporting their own stance.

How is that conflict impacting Turkey-Armenia normalization?

The non-resolution of the Karabakh conflict is the principle reason
why the Armenia-Turkey normalization process came to a halt in April
when Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan suspended Armenian official
participation in the process. Turkey was insisting on making a linkage
between Armenia-Turkey normalization and the Karabakh conflict that
was not in the protocols the two sides signed in October 2009. That
is not because Turkey cares deeply about the Karabakh issue as such,
but it does care about its relations with its Turkic ally, Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan did enough to lobby in the Turkish parliament and to
threaten Turkey with higher gas prices to dissuade the Turkish
government from pursuing the normalization policy. Now, unless there
is progress on the Karabakh conflict, it is highly unlikely that the
Armenia-Turkey process will move forward again.

Recent reports suggested progress has been made in the Minsk Group
negotiations. What’s the likelihood for a breakthrough?

Unfortunately the Minsk Group negotiations are deadlocked at the
moment. This time it is the Armenian side that does not want to engage
properly with the latest version of the so-called "Madrid Principles"
under discussion. On previous occasions, Azerbaijan has pulled back.

But there are deeper problems with the negotiations: It is far too
narrow a process to get the kind of traction needed to resolve a
major conflict. There is almost no Track Two process involving the
two societies and few international resources are being expended to
support the US, French and Russian mediators. Observers of the peace
talks have the perception that the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents
actually prefer the narrowly based desultory peace process, which
preserves the status quo and produces no results, to a more dynamic
process that would force them to take hard decisions and make public
compromises to the enemy.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress