SHOULD AZERBAIJAN CONSIDER NAGORNO KARABAKH STATEHOOD
Armen Hareyan

HULIQ.com
May 9 2010
SC

This last weekend Israel sent out a rare message agreeing to continue
talk Middle East Peace Talks that will lead to Palestinian independent
statehood. Only in two days it spread positive dynamics throughout
the Middle East, Europe and the U.S. This analysis shows Azerbaijan
would benefit greatly if it did the same on Nagorno Karabakh, taking
the road less traveled.

Israel’s abrupt change of policy toward Palestine immediately changed
the dynamics and resumed negotiations. The Palestinians responded
favorably and Fatah Central Committee authorized president Abbas to
continue indirect talks. Azerbaijan may as well try this approach as
it’s diplomacy so far has produced no fruits, neither for Azerbaijan,
nor the Nagorno Karabakh peace process.

Azerbaijan says it has agreed to Madrid Principles set forward by the
mediating states, however, those principles clearly point to future
independence of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic. The last principle
literally reads "future determination of the final legal status of
Nagorno-Karabakh through a legally binding expression of will." Those
principles are published in the White House website.

If this "legally biding" expression of will takes place it will clearly
lead to Nagorno Karabakh’s independence. The Armenian population
in Karabakh is the overwhelming majority and it has already in one
referendum voted for independence from Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan so far has ruled out any solution to the conflict that will
lead to Nagorno Karabakh’s independent statehood. Thus, how they have
agreed to the Madrid Principles remains unknown. The authorities there,
have not yet explained that to their society and the international
community. How one accepts "a legally binding expression of will,"
but says no independence?

This type of approach has collapsed Azerbaijan’s foreign policy.

Azerbaijan and Turkey keep asking Armenia to withdrow from the 7
liberated territories. Armenia liberated these territories after
Azerbaijan’s aggression on Nagorno Karabakh Autonomus Oblast to
ensure the security of its population. Azerbaijan used to use these
territories to bomb the cities and the civilian population of Nagorno
Karabakh. To confirm this one can watch the documentary movie "Nagorno
Karabakh War," made by a Bulgarian director.

Refusing to consider the statehood of Nagorno Karabakh and regularly
threatening with war Azerbaijan has not gained anything. If the
war is only option for Azerbaijan to return its territories even
its close friend Turkey is not approving it, not to mention Russia,
France and the United States. In fact, according to one Turkish author
Azerbaijan has the only country benefiting the most from the stability
in the past 16 years, selling millions of barrels of oil and growing
its GDP to record levels. On the other hand, Georgian war on Souther
Ossetia showed the devastation wars can bring in these days.

Thus, what if Azerbaijan make a policy change and conducts its
negotiations in a way that will lead to Nagorno Karabakh’s statehood.

This would truly speed up the solution and as the Armenian president
has said, the issue can even be resolved in hours if Azerbaijan
respects nation’s right to self-determination.

We live in a world where there is Kosovo precedence, where there is
U.S. House resolution HR 2499 on Puerto Rico’s rights and when now
Israel says it agrees to negotiation toward Palestinian statehood.

Where does Azerbaijan stand here?

If it does not want to take the courageous road less traveled may be
it can explain how it sees resolving the issue if it rejects every
principle set forward by the mediators. If it claims to accept it,
let it explain how does it see the "legally binding expression of will"
of the Nagorno Karabakh people.