THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION MAY BE POSTPONED

Yeni Musavat
April 24 2010
Azerbaijan

The autumn attack of the authorities; The regime is working on an
option of resuming the hostilities in Karabakh due to a danger of power
change; the authorities become aggressive as the West steps up pressure

By Teymur Maarif and Tofiq Ahmadli [translated from Azeri]

"Serious processes are under way in the authorities. Amid growing
Western pressure and as a response to plans of power change in
Azerbaijan, the authorities have assigned own political technologists
a task of preparing possible preventive measures. At the bottom of
this `homework’ lies efforts of finding the most effective pretext
of postponing the upcoming parliamentary elections…"

Search for scenarios

This sensational report came to our editorial staff from sources
close to the authorities. The source said that the authorities are
working on the most complicated and undesirable scenarios, and decided
to be ready by the autumn: "As early as the end of last year, some
Western representatives declared their readiness to implement certain
democratic programmes in Azerbaijan in the year of the parliamentary
election. After those reports were in the media, the authorities
kicked off an anti-US campaign.

First, US radio stations were taken off FM frequencies. Now the
situation is that the government is speaking to the sole superpower
in the language of threat; refuses to attend the scheduled military
games, expands aggressive campaign against it, turns parliament into
an anti-American tribune and declares the possibility of revising oil
contracts… Against this background, there comes news from camps in
power to newspapers: "America wants a puppet and obedient regime by
changing power in Azerbaijan…"

An ally or a target?

What is happening, what do all these mean? So far it is impossible
to give an exact response to these questions. However, something is
exact. The West has indeed managed to create a situation making the
Azerbaijani authorities to worry. Official Baku is not already allowed
to attend the processes (in the example of the negotiations in the
USA) related to Armenians, and Nagornyy Karabakh indirectly. However,
against this background, official Baku’s course towards Russia is
more obvious and fast. Moreover, the government’s ideologist No 1
and the head of the Presidential Administration [Ramiz Mehdiyev]
is about to visit Iran which is at war with the USA…

It is well-known that the West is exerting pressure on the Azerbaijani
authorities over Nagornyy Karabakh and the Armenian-Turkey talks. The
point is that the Aliyev government has adhered to an uncompromising
position in both processes against expectations of the West, in
particular, the USA. And it almost applied a brake to the rapprochement
between Armenia and Turkey.

The tactic of putting pressure on him with all possible means is
open on the agenda. Moreover, it emerges from incoming reports and
developments that the issue does not only boil down to pressure. It
is quite possible that he is being threatened with overthrow in
the upcoming elections. The Azerbaijani authorities do not promote
democracy and human rights, restrict freedoms and suffocate freedom
of speech. This is not new to Washington. This process has been under
way for 17 years and the incumbent president has been in power for
seven years. That is to say, all these have nothing in common with
an increase in West’s pressure over its (the regime’s) suffocation of
democracy. Over these years, the West, which cooperated closely with
the Azerbaijani authorities, has a sole reason for this abrupt change:
The process over Nagornyy Karabakh is not developing as it wants…

A chance for opposition to unite

Therefore, the authorities are being pressurized within all parameters;
moreover, dissatisfaction is growing day by day in the country due to
the regime’s neglectful policies. However, the Azerbaijani opposition
being the longest living force in the post-Soviet space, is again
reviving and has serious claims. Along with them, infighting has
intensified and it becomes gradually difficult to control them. Given
this, the parliamentary elections may push the authorities to an
undesirable situation. As this type of election is not only about
a post, the opposition forces have the opportunity of setting up
certain coalitions to get the dissatisfied electorate united. Bearing
in mind that the foreign factor has significantly changed against
the authorities, it is possible to calculate in advance that the
country’s professional and selfless opposition would incline to
serious decisions.

Several options are open

After indicating them all as preliminary reasons, let’s return to
content indicated in the introduction: The authorities are making
preparations for postponing the upcoming parliamentary election!

According to our information, the political technologists of the
authorities have been working on this extra option since last year:
"They kicked off preparations in 2009 for every difficult situation
expected in 2010. Even a change was made to the constitution in
last year’s referendum on non-conduct of elections and referenda
in conditions of war. If need be, the authorities intend to take
advantage of this point. The issue in question is about the dominant
idea of resuming the hostilities in the authorities under the pretext
of the deadlocked Karabakh issue. If local operations start, then
relevant item of the constitution will set into motion immediately
and the situation in the country will considerably change."

We got this from a source. The source claims that the Azerbaijani
authorities are trying to get Russia’s neutrality over [Baku’s] local
military operations in Nagornyy Karabakh. It is quite possible that
they will obtain it. At that point, no doubt local military operations
will be launched in mid-autumn. A maximum target is also obvious. To
liberate several villages of one or two districts under occupation,
or if possible more. However, the issue is not about driving out
Armenians from Nagornyy Karabakh at all…The matter is designed to
protect power and gain some results to carve an image of a hero. The
authorities consider that it is possible to postpone the election
under the pretext of war and then hold it following changes both at
home and abroad.

These are of course risky and not easy as well as adventurist plans.

At this point, not everything is decided by wishes of the government:
"The people of Azerbaijan and their opposition are on the stage and
a lot depends on what position they will stick and what strength
they possess…"