NABUCCO PIPELINE: BAKU STATES AN INTENTION TO PARTICIPATE IN A PROJECT QUALIFIED BY MOSCOW AS "ANTI-RUSSIAN"
By Aris Ghazinyan
ArmeniaNow reporter
Map:
11.05.10 | 16:31
Analysis
Last week, Ali Hasanov, head of public and political department of
Azerbaijan’s Presidential Administration, stated at the 13th Eurasian
Economic Summit in Istanbul that Azerbaijan is ready to allocate 50
percent of the country’s natural gas resources to the Nabucco project –
the gas pipeline originating in Central Asia.
The Azeri’s statement was unexpected, since Baku had been wavering for
a long time weighing the expediency of its participation in a project
that bypasses Russia and is, thus, regarded by Moscow as anti-Russian.
Within the project framework, a 3,300-kilometer gas main will be
built starting in Turkmenistan and passing through Azerbaijan, Georgia
and Turkey to Central European countries, first of all, Germany and
Austria. Each participant will have 16.67 percent share in the project.
Azerbaijan’s doubts were conditioned by a watchful policy towards
Russia – the major player in the region possessing considerable
influence on many regional issues, including the Karabakh conflict.
Another reason not to rush was Turkey’s position on whether it
was worth participating in the project; several promising long-term
projects of various political content close in on sea and land borders
of Turkey.
Nabucco is supported by the United States and Europe, however, not by
Russia, whereas South Stream project (trans-Black Sea gas pipeline
that carries natural gas from Russia and Middle East to Europe)
is supported by Russia and Italy.
Turkey, due to its geographical location, can give preference to one
or another project, depending on its political interests.
That issue was discussed yet in January during Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Moscow and his meeting with the
Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
Erdogan suggested that in exchange for a possible decision in favor of
the South Stream Moscow should consider the Karabakh issue settlement
and the perspectives of Armenia-Turkey relations as one.
Moscow did not hide its expectations that Turkey would give preference
to the Russian-Italian project, however not "at the cost of the
Armenian deal".
Russia’s leadership reminded about the large-scale projects connecting
Ankara and Moscow: construction of Samsun-Jeihan oil pipeline,
the currently functioning Blue Stream gas pipeline, as well as a
prospective project, Blue Streat-2, to carry Russian gas to Cyprus,
Israel, Lebanon and Syria.
>>From Moscow’s viewpoint, attention must be paid to these "uniting
factors" rather than "disuniting" ones.
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said immediately after his
meeting with Erdogan that "the normalization of Armenian-Turkish
relations should not be linked into one with the Karabakh conflict
settlement".
Putin spoke against the Turkish suggestion, and it’s not accidental
that the same day Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov visited
Yerevan.
And it was after the failed negotiations in Moscow that Turkey started
shifting over to Nabucco.
Turkey was host to the 13th Eurasian Economic Summit during which it
became known that the construction of Nabucco is scheduled to start
in 2011 with no more delay.
Official representative of Nabucco Christian Dolezal talked about this
in his interview to CNBC Turkish business TV channel. He expressed
certainty that the pipeline would be annually pumping 31 billion
cubic meters of natural gas.
According to Dolezal, 70 percent of construction expenses will be
covered by financial institutions, and members of the consortium will
cover the remaining 30 percent.
"The European Union has already loaned 200 million Euros to the
project," says Dolezal. Nabucco’s estimated total budget is $7.9
billion.
Dolezal listed Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iraq among the prospective
suppliers of natural gas for Nabucco.
Azerbaijan’s superior motive is to integrate into Europe by means of
its fuel and by that raising its significance for a number of European
countries and securing steady inflow of funds.
On the other hand, however, Azerbaijan’s economic development is
dependent only on market rates for fuel and a drastic drop in could
lead to economic crisis.
Consequently, Azerbaijan is unintentionally minimizing the chances
for a war against Armenia, as new international agreements oblige it
to be a more stable supplier.