STRATEGIC PARTNERS: RUSSIAN PRESIDENT’S VISIT TO TURKEY MARKS A NEW STAGE OF RELATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO POWERS
Naira Hayrumyan

ArmeniaNow
11.05.10 | 13:49

Analysis

"Strategic partners-to-be" Medvedev-Gul

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev begins a two-day official visit to
Turkey today, and as he has already stated "Russia and Turkey are
becoming strategic partners, and Moscow views Ankara as a good and
reliable neighbor."

In an article for the Turkish newspaper Zaman Medvedev calls
attention to the fact that a fundamentally new mechanism of interstate
consultations will be formed during his visit to Turkey – a high-level
council for cooperation. Moreover, it has been stated that this body
will also coordinate foreign policy steps.

Experts estimate the Russo-Turkish rapprochement as counteraction to
Western pressure on Ankara. One of the main levers of this pressure
is the "Armenian Question". However, Turkey refuses to open the border
with Armenia until progress is observed in the Karabakh settlement.

And Ankara hopes that Russia will persuade Armenia to cede several
districts around the former Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous region.

Turkish political scientist, Ankara University Professor Milat
Celikpala, elaborates on what conditions Turkey might have to Russia.

"Russia knows well that it must do something for Azerbaijan, but on
the other hand it fears that it will lose Armenia. And in order not
to offend either Ankara or Baku and Yerevan, Moscow may facilitate the
[Armenian] withdrawal from several occupied districts of Azerbaijan.

If it doesn’t, then Moscow will have to answer for the failure of
the Turkish-Armenian negotiations and the Nagorno-Karabakh process,"
said Celikpala.

"Russia is trying to get the maximum from Turkey, giving nothing
in return," says expert of the Armenian Center for National and
International Studies (ACNIS) Manvel Sargsyan. "I do not think that
one meeting is enough to find a solution to the Karabakh conflict
and offer it to the parties – the parties have too different views
and visions for settling the conflict." Sargsyan practically rules
out the possibility of Russia exerting pressure on Yerevan over the
Karabakh settlement.

Senior lawmaker of the pro-government Prosperous Armenia Party Vardan
Bostanjyan believes that the friendship of Russia and Turkey will be
limited to energy projects. In the "war of pipelines" Russia is trying
to talk Turkey into refusing to participate in the Nabucco project, an
EU- and US-backed natural gas pipeline, and directing all investments
to a rival Russian pipeline project – Gazprom-led South Stream.

On the eve of the visit Moscow and Ankara agreed on natural gas
deliveries: from now on, Turkey will receive natural gas from Russia
at a price that is 10 percent less than the market price. At the same
time, Russia and Turkey have initialed an agreement on the abolition
of the visa regime between the two countries. The signing ceremony
is scheduled during Medvedev’s current visit to Turkey.