RUSSIAN ANALYST: EVERYONE KNOWS ARMENIA WILL HAVE TO LEAVE ALL REGIONS SURROUNDING NAGORNO-KARABAKH

Today
olitics/67752.html
May 12 2010
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with expert at the Carnegie Center Moscow branch,
famous Russian political analyst Alexei Malashenko.

Experts say the Nagorno-Karabakh talks have stalled in recent months,
since unlike Azerbaijan, Armenia seems to be reluctant to accept the
updated Madrid Principles as a peaceful plan to settle the conflict
step-by-step. What steps should be taken now?

I think sooner or later Armenia will accept these principles and will
act the way it should. The main point is that the resolution process
will take a very long time. No one knows what we will see at the end
of this process.

Of course, Armenia will have to leave all regions surrounding
Nagorno-Karabakh. Everyone knows this. It remains to be seen what
status Nagorno-Karabakh will have in the future. It’s a common
problem. So, issued related to Nagorno-Karabakh will be decided slowly
and everybody will get used to it. I have a feeling that neither
Europe, nor America nor Russia will let it to evolve into a war. So,
it will be eternal negotiations as in case of the Middle East.

In your opinion, why the U.S. president once again refrained from
using the term "genocide" referring to the events of 1915 in the
Ottoman Empire?

Everyone should understand that Armenian or Caucasian problems are not
the most important for the U.S. president. He just does not want to
once again get involved with all of this. He has a lot more questions
on the Middle East, Afghanistan and Iran. So, Caucasus even Georgia
is a periphery for him. He sees all these as a kind of routine. So,
there is no need to think that there is something important behind
Obama’s speech.

In your opinion, will the Armenia-U.S. relations change given that
many Armenian and foreign media outlets accused Obama of reneging
of promises?

What of it? Well, there is some kind of Armenian lobby in California.

But, in general, it is not the political sphere which Obama is
interested in. And how can the relationship between Armenia and the
U.S. change when they simply have no relations? There is much noise
in the Caucasus, but very few people care about it.

In your opinion, why did Serzh Sargsyan opt to suspend ratification
of the Armenia-Turkey protocols?

The thing is that the sides cannot simply reach an agreement. Turkey
links this process to issues related to Nagorno-Karabakh. Therefore,
they will still walk around this vicious circle. Thank God, that they
started this process. Obviously, for Armenians all this is painful
while the Turks do not want to recognize their claims. After all,
it is century-old question. I believe that everything that happens
around the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations is routine
which has little effect on the overall situation.

What will happen next in this process? Will it resume in foreseeable
future?

Armenians will certainly reach agreement with Turks in the end. The
only question is – what conditions they will do it on, and how this
will happen. Of course, the process of normalization will soon resume.

But one way or another, sooner or later, Armenia will have to admit
that all these difficulties are history. And it does not determine
the relations between countries.

When we try to find who inflicted more losses to whom, we’re just
going to tiptoe. In any case, such things are usually resolved between
normal states. France and Germany and Russia and Germany could somehow
resolve their claims. Yes, it is really painful, but, nevertheless,
life goes on.