Prospective apple of discord?
Loud statements of the Turkish side, assuring that the `future of
Nakhichevan has always interested and will interest Turkey in the
first place’ are just a cliché.

85 years ago the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic (NAR) was founded,
which in the foreseeable future may become another hotbed of tension
and blow up the region. Despite the seeming agreement on Nakhichevan’s
belonging to Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran have begun to test the waters
and wage a backstage struggle for the right to dictate their will to
Baku, or rather Nakhichevan. Later, this will may grow into
conditions; everything depends on the `behavior’ of Azerbaijan, which
equally depends on Turkey and Iran. But even more she depends on
Russia, no matter how hard Baku `experts’ and `political analysts’ try
to assure their nation in the contrary.

May 14, 2010
PanARMENIAN.Net –

Most likely the loud statements of the Turkish side, assuring that the
`future of Nakhichevan has always interested and will interest Turkey
in the first place’ are just a cliché, especially since they are made
by the foreign minister of Turkey. `The treaty of Kars that ensures
the safety of Nakhichevan remains in force. It is undeniable. This
agreement is an integral part of international law. Turkey is the
guarantor of the security of Nakhichevan. It is the commitment of
Turkey under international law. Safety of Nakhichevan is our security,
her welfare is our wellfare,’ Davutoglu said, adding that Nakhichevan
and Turkey are inseparable.

Under the Treaty of Amity between the Armenian SSR, Azerbaijani SSR
and Georgian SSR, on the one hand, and Turkey on the other, signed
with participation of the RSFSR in Kars on October 13, 1921, the
Region of Nakhichevan constitutes an autonomous territory under the
aegis of Azerbaijan, without the right to be passed to a third
country. By a third country was and is implied Armenia. However, it is
worth mentioning that Iran too has got an eye on this region. In 2005,
Presidents of Iran and Azerbaijan, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ilham
Aliyev, officially opened a gas pipeline stretching from Iran to the
Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan. The first deliveries were initiated
on November 1, 2005. According to the agreement designed for 25 years,
Iran supplies to the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic 85% of the gas
coming into this country from Azerbaijan. The remaining 15% is the
payment of Baku for Tehran’s services. No solid cash payments are
provided for in the contract.

Thus, everyone sells what they have: Turkey sells a guarantee of
security, Iran sells gas. Azerbaijan has so far taken advantage of
both, but how long will this continue? It is natural that Turkey, in
this case, has more chances than Iran; she is closer to the political
elite of Baku, who do not favour the ayatollah regime. However, it is
with Nakhichevan that the struggle for regional supremacy between the
two countries will start. And the one that will be able to eat up
Azerbaijan first, can say that the first step is taken. However, this
does not mean that the opposite side will quickly surrender. Regional
processes are gaining momentum and no little role in them is played by
Armenia, or rather, by the Karabakh conflict. If Baku should ever
start a war, neither Turkey nor Iran will come to the rescue for
different reasons: Turkey would not support an aggressor, while Iran
simply would not interfere. The truth is that in case Aliyev starts a
war, he can stand no longer than a month. But the problem of
Nakhichevan can be solved within that month, as the Treaty of Kars
defines Turkey as security guarantor of the area. Be that as it may,
in the next few years we will witness great changes in the region.
It’s not for nothing that the subject of Nakhichevan has activated in
the Turkish media especially now.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan / PanARMENIAN News