"RUSSIA WILL NOT INTERVENE IN THE CONFLICT ONCE AZERBAIJAN RESORTS TO MILITARY SOLUTION"

Today
itics/68093.html
May 17 2010
Azerbaijan

Interview with renowned Russian political analyst Stanislaw Belkovski.

Azerbaijan has announced many times that it endorses the updated
Madrid principles while Armenia delays its response to document. In
your opinion, what will Yerevan’s response be?

I think that Armenia will accept the update Madrid principles with
certain amendments. In my opinion, these principles are the formal
basis for moving forward. In fact, Armenia is most satisfied with
the status quo. Therefore, Armenia will use all possible excuses and
clues to save the current state of the negotiations as long as it
is possible.

And how long Armenia will be able to delay its response given that
Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated it may resort to military solution in
event of failure to resolve the problem through peaceful negotiations?

I think that today neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan need to get
involved in military conflict. Emotional state of the Azerbaijani
side is understandable. But I do not believe that military action will
still take place. Moreover, we all see how it is difficult to start a
military conflict in the modern world amid existence of a superpower
like the U.S. and regional power like Turkey. The role of these states
in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is very high.

Turkey’s position on the Karabakh conflict meets Azerbaijan’s
interests. During his visit to Turkey, Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev said that the positions of the two countries on this issue
are very similar. Can we assume that Russia supports Azerbaijan’s
position as the only correct position?

I think that today Russia and Azerbaijan have become much closer to
each other. Russia’s position has become much closer to Azerbaijan’s
interests since Dmitry Medvedev came to power. The bilateral relations
have become much warmer. The fact is that many representatives of
President Medvedev inner circles and people who largely shape his
view are those close to Azerbaijan. So, Dmitry Medvedev is the most
pro-Azerbaijani president of all three post-Soviet Russian presidents.

If Azerbaijan one day resorts to military way to liberate its lands,
how will Russia act?

Moscow will make peaceful calls, but will not intervene in the
conflict. It will urge the U.S. and Turkey to address the situation,
but no more. Russian troops will not participate in the conflict.

In your opinion, will Turkey be one of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs
in future?

I think, yes. But it is impossible to happen in near future. In your
view, may Turkey become the fourth co-chair or it may replace France
as argued by many experts? I think that France will still be co-chair
of the Minsk Group. Given influence of Armenian lobby in France,
it will be pro-Armenian one way or another. No one will attempt to
remove France from among co-chairs as it is greater player in world
politics, rather than Turkey. This situation will not change in the
coming decades.