TURKISH-ARMENIAN COOPERATION DEEPENING TO HAPPEN AT THE COST OF TURKISH-AMERICAN RELATIONS
Ashot Safaryan

ArmInfo
2010-05-19 09:10:00

Interview of Director of Akunq Analytical Research Center Ruben
Hakobyan with ArmInfo News Agency

Mr. Hakobyan, what are the real backgrounds of the current
American-Turkish rapprochement?

It has become clear during the last two years, in view of activation
of negotiations on construction of Nabucco project, that Russia’s
steps, aimed at implementation of projects alternative to Nabucco, will
entail certain rapprochement with Ankara and Baku. Moscow succeeded to
find common ground with the indicated tandem in some sense and brake
Nabucco, since its construction has already been placed in doubt. The
initial enthusiasm related to Nabucco designing volatilized in no time
and thanks in no small part to Moscow’s efforts. Rapprochement between
Russia and Turkey on the one hand, and between Russia and Azerbaijan
on the other hand, has become a reality, since geopolitical processes
in our region and in the world, in general, are currently based on
economic relations.

Does it happen primarily due to torpedoing of Nabucco?

Not only. Russia has a problem of increasing and preserving its
presence in the South Caucasus. It is very sensitive to this region.

Consequently, it is very important for Moscow to keep its influence
on the countries of the region.

Can the rapprochement between Moscow and Ankara pose a threat for
Armenia?

The Armenia-Turkey rapprochement process in general was not the
Armenian authorities’ initiative despite the latters’ claims. There
can be no initiative without a clear programme and development
prospect. Suspension of the Protocol ratification process in the
Armenian parliament was a result of pressure. What did suspension
give to Armenia? Nothing at all, while it enabled Ankara to manoeuvre.

Yerevan actually allows the Turkish party to return to the process
when it wishes. The West hurried to welcome Armenia’s readiness
to remain in the normalization process just after freezing of the
Protocols ratification process by the Armenian parliament. "This
"welcome" meant that they have expectations from Armenia hidden in
the statements about Yerevan’s constructive stance, unlike Turkey.

Actually, it is easier for these powers to deal with amenable Yerevan
than stubborn Ankara. Therein lays the pressure on Armenia.

If Armenia wanted to achieve some independence in negotiations with
Turkey, it had to advance a requirement on fixing specific reasonable
terms for ratification of the Protocols, and upon expiry of the
terms, Armenia had to leave the process via recalling its signature
under the Protocols, if Turkey did not ratify them. In this case,
Yerevan would actually become invulnerable. However, the country’s
authorities did not take such a step because they either did not
realize its expediency or actually stood back under the first pressure.

Do Turkey’s own gambling rules available lead to rapprochement
with Russia?

Yes, I think so. Turkey wants to show that America is not the only
ally, and there will always be an alternative to it, if necessary. In
general, Turkey has always succeeded to play between the East and
West. Of course, it is also connected with the geographic situation,
however, it is mainly conditioned by the flexible diplomatic game.

Deepening of the Turkish-Russian cooperation will currently happen
just due to the Turkish-American relations.

Can Moscow give a carte blanch to Ankara for interference in the
Karabakh settlement?

Interference by Turkey may happen in two ways: either Turkey becomes
OSCE MG cochairman or it actively works with one of the cochairmen
and moves on its stance assisted by the latter. Ankara’s attempts to
become OSCE MG formal mediator will not succeed, as I hope that the
Armenian authorities realize the whole danger of this prospect. Turkey
actually remains the most active participant in the settlement process,
first of all because of the Armenian- Turkish Protocols. I have always
held to the opinion that Turkey needed the process itself but not its
result. Ankara expects to become more active in the region through the
normalization process, it tries to realize its geopolitical ambitions,
and it succeeds to some extent. I think that Russia will take into
account Turkey’s stance in settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

All of us remember the Turkish prime Minister Erdogan’s words saying
there are no preconditions in the Protocols, however, according to
one of the provisions, they should promote establishment of peace
and stability in the region, that requires solution of the Karabakh
problem. Reading of a diplomatic document requires certain skills,
which, unfortunately, the Armenian authorities often lack, that is
proved by Zurich Protocols. I agree that the Turkish prime minister’s
words are absurd and demagogical to some extent, however, the lines
of the Protocols allow him to substantiate this demagogy. Therefore,
any diplomatic document must be precise and not admit various readings.

Foreign Minister of Iran Manouchehr Mottaki has recently suggested to
hold a trilateral meeting of the Armenian, Azerbaijani and Iranian
foreign ministers. Does this fact fit the frames of competition
between Iran and Turkey?

Of course, competition between the indicated regional players is
one of the primary reasons for the proposal by Iran. On the other
hand, those wishing to become active in the region, start offering
their services in settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Perhaps,
their intentions are good, but unfortunately, the Nagorno Karabakh
problem has become s subject for different speculations and a means
for withdrawal of dividends. However, I think that, first, the proposal
by Iran is somewhat late. Second, the existing format of the mediators
is self-sufficient and they do not hurry to include someone else.