‘THE NORMALIZATION OF TURKISH-ARMENIAN RELATIONS COULD TAKE MANY YEARS’

News.az
May 25 2010
Azerbaijan

Emmanuel Karagiannis News.Az interviews Emmanuel Karagiannis, Assistant
Professor of Russian, post-Soviet Politics, University of Macedonia
at Thessaloniki, Greece.

There are a huge energy projects linking Azerbaijan, Turkey and
Greece. Don’t you think that Greece becomes more interested in
stability in the South Caucasus in this regard and does Greece have
any possibilities to assist this region to be more secure?

In recent years, Athens has shown greater interest in the South
Caucasus for a number of reasons. First, there is still an ethnic
Greek population in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Second, Athens
seeks to diversify its sources of energy and Azerbaijan is obviously
a viable option. Third, Greece would like to act as a bridge between
the EU and its eastern neighbors which hope to integrate further into
the Euro-Atlantic structures.

Russia and Turkey has been developing a close collaboration, especially
during the last 2 years. What is your opinion, may this collaboration
be fruitful for the stability in the South Caucasus region?

Given the Turkish-Russian fierce competition in the 1990s, the
current astonishing improvement of bilateral relations could certainly
contribute to regional stability. But the two countries have different
views about Georgia’s territorial integrity, the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, and the role of Russia in the South Caucasus. Since Ankara
and Moscow have competing interests in the region, they will often
find themselves in opposite camps which practically means that the
South Caucasus will remain a zone of great power competition.

Turkey is very active now as a mediator in the Karabagh conflict. But
at the same time Turkey has its own problems with Armenia. What do
you think about Turkish potential in the Karabakh settlement?

Turkey is not considered by most Armenians as a neutral party in the
Karabakh conflict. Ankara can be viewed as a reliable peace broker
only if it normalizes relations first with Yerevan. Yet, the genocide
issue has poisoned the Turkish-Armenian relations and has produced
mutual suspicion. Therefore, the normalization of Turkish-Armenian
relations could take many years.

Azerbaijan and Turkey say that there is a direct link between the
Karabakh conflict and Turkish-Armenian peace process, but Armenia
says they are two independent processes. Do you see interconnection
between the two problems?

Due to the Turkish blockade of Armenia, Ankara is considered by
many as part of the problem, rather than part of the solution. The
Armenian leadership would have preferred to normalize relations
with its big neighbor in the east while avoiding any concessions to
Baku. But apparently the Erdogan government is not willing to pay
the political price of such a step at a time of increased tensions
with the Turkish military.

Secessionists in Karabakh held parliamentary elections in the occupied
Azeri territories on May 23. Do you think that international community
this time or anytime later will recognize its legality?

There are no indications whatsoever that the breakaway republic
of Nagorno-Karabakh will gain diplomatic recognition soon. Having
said that, Stepanakert will most likely seek further integration
into Armenia.

From: A. Papazian