RUSSIAN EXPERT SAYS NO WAR IN KARABAKH
news.am
March 30 2011
Armenia
Although Azerbaijan’s military budget is ten times larger than the
Armenian one, although Azerbaijan threatens to resume hostilities in
Nagorno-Karabakh, it will never do it, Russian expert told Armenian
News-NEWS.am.
Anatoly Tsiganok, Head of the Russia-based Military Forecast Center,
Azerbaijan’s oil facilities will be first under attack in case
hostilities resume. In this case Azerbaijan will find itself in a
difficult situation.
Presently, Europe gets a lot of oil benefits from Azerbaijan, and
it will hardly allow resumption of war, as it will be extremely
undesirable for the EU. Meanwhile, the U.S. does not need another
problem in the South Caucasus and is not interested in it, the
expert said.
Armenia is also Moscow’s strategic partner. As to Azerbaijan-Russia
relations, the countries are involved in joint oil industry and
division of the Caspian Sea. This accounts for current good relations
of Russia with both states, Tsiganok added.
All this only indicates one thing: status quo in the conflict zone
is beneficial to all, except for Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Political expert pointed to a rather complicated scheme of security
prevailing in the South Caucasus. “On the one hand, there is CSTO with
its members – Armenia and Russia, on the other – NATO with Georgia
and Azerbaijan striving to join the alliance,” he said adding that
mixture of these interests does not suggest a great likelihood of
war resumption.
From: A. Papazian