CENTER OF GRAVITY CHANGES
NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
Published: 16:59:55 – 03/05/2011
Tina Kaidanaw, the U.S. deputy assistant secretary visiting Armenia
made some significant statements. She mentioned the necessity of
equal opportunities of economic competition for all enterprises,
including the Armenian companies.
Her visit was followed by news about the upcoming visit of the CEO of
the Millennium Challenge Corporation which implemented vast programs
in Armenia but Armenia is no longer eligible due to lack of democracy,
and the programs were suspended. Is it possible that after the visit
of the head of MCC the previous decision will be reviewed? If so, what
has changed in the economic policy of Armenia in the past few weeks?
At first sight, nothing has changed because the Armenian government
announced about intentions under external pressure which may be
viewed as change of policy. First of all, it is the decision on tax
declaration of 500 high-ranking officials. It is the tax amnesty,
as well as the meeting of Serzh Sargsyan with the representatives of
the mining industries in an effort to address their tax debts. The
head of the State Revenue Committee Gagik Khachatryan announced about
fundamental tax and customs reforms.
Most probably, the Armenian government has been pointed the right way,
and at least it had to declare about its intention to take that track.
The main role, however, was that of the dialogue between the opposition
and the government towards internal political transformations,
including change of government. In the process of these transformations
the center of gravity may shift from the pro-Russian vector to a
more independent vector. And the fact that the U.S. Deputy Assistant
Secretary speaks about the flow of the American capital to Armenia
is evidence to this movement.
So far, the Russian capital has been dominant in the Armenian economy.
It occupies not only the main military sectors and infrastructures
but also blocks the way for western companies. The only exception is
the sector of mobile communication which showed that the entry of
the French Orange to the sector dominated by Russian companies has
improved the competition and led to the development of the sector.
The political sphere of Armenia has taken a time-out till the end
of May, the next rally of the Armenian National Congress. However,
the political consultations do not stop, and obviously the government
has run out of its political resource, both regarding the economy
and imitation and propaganda. Now the government has two options,
to accept the necessity for real reforms, sacrificing the oligarchs,
or to wait for resignation. In any case, it is obvious that the
government will not depend on Russia to the extent it used to.
From: A. Papazian