STRATFOR: “THE REGION ABOUT TO TRADE TURMOIL FOR CRISIS”

Milaz.info

May 27 2011
Azerbaijan

US global analytical company published a book titled “A Crucible of
Nations: The Geopolitics of the Caucasus”

US global analytical company STRATFOR published a book titled “A
Crucible of Nations: The Geopolitics of the Caucasus”, APA reports.

The book’s introduction reads: “In the Caucasus, three great historical
empires converge: Russia, Persia and Turkey. They are no longer
empires but republics, and Persia has changed its name to Iran,
while Russia called itself the Soviet Union for seven decades. The
names, ideologies and fortunes have changed, but these three great
powers have this in common: Each is part of the Caucasus region but
has greater interests outside the Caucasus region. That means that
interests far away frequently drive the behavior of the three great
powers in the Caucasus. For all three powers, the Caucasus is sometimes
at the center of their thinking and sometimes an afterthought”.

“Another characteristic they share is that all three are rising
powers. Turkey is shaking off three generations of self-imposed
isolation and exploring its neighborhood. The process is awkward,
painful and plagued with mistakes and setbacks, but Ankara is tired
of having its fate determined by others and so has no choice but to
continue. Iran seeks to reach into the areas near it that have been
weakened by the Soviet collapse and the U.S. wars in the Islamic
world. Alone among the region’s states in its relative internal and
external security, Iran has many opportunities for expansion. The
post-Soviet collapse is over, and Russia’s twilight will not begin for
another decade, producing a rising tide of Russian power throughout its
periphery that seems irresistible – until it recedes. The attention
of all three powers shifts based on the demands of the day, but all
regularly cross gazes in the Caucasus”.

“There are also three nations entirely within the Caucasus that are
much smaller and weaker than those great powers: Armenia, Azerbaijan
and Georgia. They are ancient mountain cultures that have survived
because the rugged mountains provided natural barriers to invaders.

During the last century, Czarist Russia, and then the Soviet Union,
occupied all three nations. The Russians changed borders, moved
populations and forced cultural changes but were unable to suppress the
Caucasus peoples’ national self-awareness. Indeed, in odd ways, these
mountain cultures fought back by giving in. The Caucasus nations played
Politburo politics with the same ruthless cunning with which they
fought each other. The Georgians even gave the Russians Joseph Stalin”.

Each Caucasus country contains fragments of the populations of the
other countries in the region, and each contains smaller groups
– fragments of older nations. The claims about what belongs to
each of these nations and what was stolen from them date back for
centuries; yesterday and a thousand years ago are remembered with
equal vividness. The very antiquity of the cultures creates the most
contemporary conflicts”.

“Most Azerbaijanis, having been conquered by the Persians, live in
Iran. Russia has broken Georgia’s control over territory it claims.

Armenia claims a blood debt against Turkey over mass murders in
1915, while Azerbaijanis claim similar debts against Armenians. This
is not ancient history. Georgia fought a war with Russia in 2008,
Armenians and Azerbaijanis are currently edging toward a new war,
and Iranians infiltrate Azerbaijan regularly”.

“When all of the Caucasus is under the control of the three major
powers, the region tends to be more stable than when the three smaller
powers are independent. A smothering occupation limits the options for
the smaller nations. When the three smaller states are independent,
they attempt to purify their internal regions of smaller groups,
they compete with each other and they compete with the greater
powers. The friction creates both challenges and opportunities for
the greater powers. Wars become seen as just another tactic in the
balance-of-power game”.

“When STRATFOR steps back and look at the region broadly, we see a
region about to trade turmoil for crisis.

We find that the Russian hold on the North Caucasus is firm, but
that the challenge from Islamist and nationalist insurgents in
the region is substantial and growing. There is low but increasing
tension between Iran and Azerbaijan, both because northwestern Iran is
ethnically Azerbaijani and that Tehran and Baku have starkly different
outlooks. Turkey and Iran are sliding toward confrontation while
Armenia is in indefinite confrontation with Turkey. The conflict
between Armenia and Azerbaijan is almost certain to erupt into war
in the near future. Russian power has broken the Georgian state,
but Georgia’s position makes it the logical gateway for any outside
power that wishes to enter the game”.

The opportunities for a range of conflicts are substantial, and
the timing of such conflicts is unpredictable – and that is without
factoring in the United States, whose relations with Iran, Russia
and Turkey are hostile, cold and deteriorating, respectively.