Paul J. Sullivan: The importance of Turkey to the Arab world
Sunday, 29 May 2011
As we approach the June 12 elections in Turkey and as we observe the
tumultuous changes happening in the Middle East it is important to
take a look at the importance of Turkey. Surely in a short article
like this not enough could be said about Turkey, its importance to the
region, to NATO, to the European Union, for Western-Islamic relations,
water security, energy security and so much more. But I will give an
introduction to some of the main issues and hope that many of you will
follow through and look more into Turkey. Turkey is one of the most
populous countries in the Middle East, right up there with Egypt. It
also has a very powerful military and a quickly growing economy.
Turkey is the largest investor in northern Iraq and these investments
and the development from them have helped to stabilize this part of
Iraq.
Turkey is also a major investor in Central Asia and its construction
companies can be found at work in many parts of the world. Although it
faces unemployment and underemployment problems, economic structural
issues and more, it has come a long way since the darker days of its
economy not so long ago. Turkey has bounced back rather well from the
financial crisis mostly.
One of the bigger concerns now is that it may be overheating and too
much investment may be happening – and possibly there may be a bubble
or two there. There is some fragility in the Turkish economy, but
overall it could be considered one of the success stories of the
recent past of a country that is moving forward rather rapidly, but
without the press and accolades of a China or Brazil. Nonetheless, it
is an economy to watch and a place where some of the smartest
investors are either already there or are keeping a keen out for
opportunity there.
Turkey is pursuing a full spectrum foreign policy reaching out to as
many countries as possible. It has its own national goals and security
issues and many of these are reflected in its foreign policy. It has
cautiously reached out to its problematic neighbor Iran, but at the
same time keeps fairly good relations with the United States, the Gulf
Cooperation Council and the rest of its NATO partners. Importantly,
Turkey seems to be under no illusions about the nature of the Iranian
leadership.
Its relations with Greece, although far from perfect, have improved
greatly. Turkey has been a big part of NATO operations in Afghanistan
and has contributed to many UN peacekeeping and other international
military and security operations. It has walked a fine line on the
situation in Libya and has tried its mightiest to understand its
position regarding the Arab Spring. Its relations with Israel are not
the best and the flotilla incident made things much worse.
Turkey seems to have distinctly turned to the East on many issues and
sees itself as a leader within the Muslim world. It still has some
historical baggage from the Ottoman Empire to deal with regard to the
Arab states and others. Its relations with Russia are sometimes
complex, but hardly as they were during the Cold War or during the
Ottoman days.
Turkey seems to be coming to terms slowly with Armenia. Many of its
top business people seem to want to move forward more quickly with
better relations with that neighbor. However, there are some
historical sensitivities that needs to be worked out between them and
amongst the supporters and detractors of each.
Turkey seems to be struggling, but thankfully peacefully, with its
identity. Every time I go there I am told it is both east and west,
Asia and Europe. Indeed it is, but it also seems to be trying to come
to grips with its Islamic identity and how this fits in with its
constitution, which is predicated upon a secular state defended by the
military, and with the social and cultural pressures placed upon it by
local and regional events. The coming election could be an important
point in that identity development, which will likely be ongoing for
many years to come.
Turkey is a functioning democracy in a country that is predominantly
Muslim. It is an example, like Malaysia, where democracy and Islam are
compatible. Actually, the second largest Muslim population in the
world (after Indonesia) is in India, which is also the largest
democracy by population.
Some people in the countries of the Arab Spring are looking to Turkey
as a possible model for the development of democracy. They should take
care, however, in seeing the cultural and historical differences
between them and Turkey, and should also take care to not expect to
leap forward toward democracy without developing the proper checks and
balances and liberalizing institutions. Turkey is in many ways still
struggling with these parts of its democracy development. It is far
from perfect, and most Turks would agree, it is working through its
internal contradictions and complexities in what seems to be a very
productive manner.
Each and everyone one of the countries now in transition needs to
work through the very complex issues of its future political and
economic development. They could learn a lot from Turkey, but a full
transplantation of the Turkish model could prove to be very difficult.
Turkey is also an important bridge between Islam and the West and
will likely be so for many decades, if not centuries, to come. Turkey
is both east and west and can communicate clearly and effectively in
both directions, and also from North to South.
Turkey is also a key player in the water and energy security of some
important regional players and beyond. It is the major source of the
waters of the Tigris and Euphrates and what is does with its water
flowing toward Iraq and Syria can have huge effects downstream. Turkey
is becoming a hugely important connecting stream via pipelines for
energy from Central Asia, Russia and more to the Europeans. Pipeline
systems that are planned could make it one of the most important
energy connectors in the world. The Bosporus is also an important
energy linkage, and possible choke point or global importance.
Turkey is also a transshipment point for vast amounts of cargo and
other trade. It could also prove to be a major investment and finance
connector globally if the financial infrastructure and institutions in
the country are more fully developed.
The EU could be a bit more welcoming to this growing power on its
doorstep. When people discuss emerging powers they mostly focus on
China and India. Turkey should be on their radar screens in a very big
way.
Turkey is important for economic, energy, water, diplomatic,
military, political, inter-religious, intra-regional and
inter-regional relations. It is a global player. We should all be
keeping a keen eye toward Turkey in the future. My guess is that it
will become an even more important global player.
Ataturk brought Turkey back from the abyss and saved the country in
many ways. Turkey’s present and future leaders have the profound
responsibility to carry that responsibility further. I have a lot of
hope that they can succeed at that, even with the significant internal
and external challenges they will likely face. It is a great country
with great promise.
(Professor Paul Sullivan teaches at National Defense University and
Georgetown University. He can be reached at: [email protected]