RUSSIA SEEKS KARABAKH SOLUTION TO RESCUE ARMENIAN STATEHOOD

news.az
June 2 2011
Azerbaijan

News.Az interviews deputy chairman of the parliamentary committee
for defense and security of Milli Majlis, political scientist Aydin
Mirzazade.

What has been the cause of appeals of the Minsk Group co-chairing
presidents in their latest statement to the Karabakh conflict parties?

It is worthy to note that over the past two years the similar
statements have come not only from the representatives of the Minsk
Group co-chairing states but also from the heads of those states.

Additionally, it has already been over two years that the head of one
of the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, namely the Russian president,
is taking a direct part in the meetings of the presidents of Azerbaijan
and Armenia. These facts prove that the meetings between the heads of
Azerbaijan and Armenia have moved to a qualitatively new format. All
the same, the joint statement of the Minsk Group co-chairing presidents
prior to the meeting of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia in
June of this year in Kazan shows that the organization of discussions
between the leaders of the conflict parties should not be viewed as
an initiative of only the Russian party. In other words, this fact
demonstrates the attention paid to Karabakh conflict by the United
States and France.

Also earlier the co-chairs were voicing diplomatic appeals to the
parties, while now they recommend to the parties to prepare main
resolution principles for the Karabakh conflict. For this reason, the
conflict parties will have to come up with a definite stance. In this
view, I believe that this position must be clarified by the parties in
the meeting in Kazan. It all suggests that the parties can reconcile
their positions in the problem settlement while meeting in Kazan.

Were the appeals contained in the declarations of the Minsk Group
co-chairs addressed mostly to Azerbaijan or Armenia?

Naturally, this declaration is made in a diplomatic tone and it does
not specify names. But it is clear that when the liberation of lands
is at issue, every appeal in statements is addressed to Armenia. On
the other hand, For Armenia is a strategic ally for Russia, unlike the
United States and France. For this reason, considering this factor, it
is necessary to take into account that Russia urges its ally to avoid
future mistakes by signing the joint declaration of the presidents.

The occupation of Azerbaijani lands brought nothing positive to
Armenia. It is left out of all regional projects, this country
cannot take part in events and projects, implemented in the region
by Azerbaijan, the main state in the South Caucasus.

The state inside Armenia is worsening over this as well as due to other
reasons. The recent estimates show that in the event of prolongation
of the status quo around Karabakh conflict, the Armenian population
will drop to just 1m people by 2010. It will lead to the collapse
of the Armenian state. Considering all these factors, the co-chairs
diplomatically urge Armenia to think seriously of the future of
the country.

Can the activeness of the Russian party in Karabakh settlement change
the status quo in this conflict?

While earlier Moscow was just trying to show its presence in
international and regional affairs despite its presence in Karabakh
process, now it is interested in the meetings between Azerbaijan
and Armenia. For this reason, on the one hand, Azerbaijan is growing
into one of the closest allies of Russia in the region. Therefore,
Moscow does not want to lose its contacts with Baku and is showing
a greater interest in Azerbaijan’s strengthening year by year.

As for relations with Yerevan, given the historical ties between
Russian and Armenian peoples, Armenia’s weakening causes the weakening
of Russia’s positions in the South Caucasus. Therefore, Russia seeks
to obtain guarantees to the further existence of Armenia through the
soonest solution to the Karabakh conflict and on the other hand it
tries not to spoil relations with Azerbaijan. However, it should be
noted that undoubtedly, the equal approach to conflict parties is
not helpful to the problem settlement, but Russia is interested in
solving it. Thus, the resolution of the Karabakh conflict for Russia
means reduced tensions in its southern borders and protection of its
interests in this region.

How can Russia influence Azerbaijan and Armenia to reach a compromise
in Karabakh settlement?

Russia’s potential to influence Azerbaijan lies in creation of ally
relations with Baku. This influence can be made within the framework
of friendship, ally relations and presence of mutual interests. As
for possible influence on Azerbaijan, it is out of the question.

As for Armenia, one of the Russian leaders described this country
as Russia’s outpost. For this reason, Russia can put pressure and
influence Armenia in many cases.