GARBIS: OPPOSITION’S DEMANDS MET: NOW WHAT?
By: Christian Garbis
Thu, Jun 2 2011
The three demands of the Armenian National Congress put before the
government-namely the release of all “political prisoners,” the
right to hold public rallies at Liberty Square, and a new (although
fruitless) investigation into the events of March 1, 2008 that
left 10 people dead- have now all been surprisingly met. The most
popular jailed activists associated with the opposition, “Haykakan
Zhamanak” newspaper editor Nikol Pashinian and Sasun Mikaelian,
were finally released on May 27 after a general amnesty was approved
by the parliament. President Serge Sarkisian’s accommodation was not
necessarily expected, yet it can be viewed as a strategic move to woo
the favor of voters for the parliamentary elections in 2012, followed
by his expected bid for the presidency in 2013. His outreach is also
a perfect and timely way to appease Europe and the U.S., which have
both been calling for systematic reforms and the implementation of
democratic norms in Armenia.
Sasun Mikaelian, one of the released opposition leaders.
By placating the critics, the Armenian government is demonstrating
that not only does it hold a heavy hand, but that it can also be
sympathetic to those who are dissenting. Now the Armenian National
Congress, headed by former president Levon Ter-Petrosian, is slated to
hold “talks” with the authorities in the near future, the outcome of
which is subject to speculation. With these gestures, the government
is essentially exhibiting its God complex-omnipresent and despotic,
yet forgiving.
Now, questions as to how the authorities will further subdue the
opposition hover. Several probable variants can be considered,
among them:
1. The Armenian National Congress represented by Ter-Petrosian in
closed meetings negotiates with the Sarkisian Administration. In a
gesture of goodwill, the president extends an olive branch to his
archrival and offers him the position of prime minister and the
formation of a super-coalition, bringing friends and foes together
on the same team. Ter-Petrosian accepts his offer. Ter-Petrosian’s
die-hard supporters follow his lead and join him in the government,
while staunch oppositionists are left betrayed and isolated. The
Congress in its current form collapses and the opposition becomes
confused and disorganized. Sarkisian promises the Congress leaders that
its faithful will win parliamentary seats in the upcoming elections,
fairly or not. The ARF-Dashnaktsutiun prays for a Kocharian comeback,
hoping to regain its ministerial seats should he be reelected with
its unwavering support, while the Heritage Party continues its boycott
of the state of affairs.
2. As in point 1, the Congress leaders and Ter-Petrosian join the
government, leaving the opposition fragmented and reeling from a
concussion. Then, the ARF- Dashnaktsutiun-in a blinding, sublime
revelation and a renewed comprehension of its party values and modus
operandi-decides to pick up the ball dropped by Ter-Petrosian. The
party rallies its dormant disenchanted followers who are still
wondering why the organization never became a powerful political
force in Armenia since its party leaders were freed from jail by
their savior Robert Kocharian days after he first became president.
Dashnaktsutiun reaches out to Heritage party and puts aside whatever
bad blood existed between them related to who is more faithful to the
universal Armenian cause. As a result of a tremendous amount of hard
work-substantially more than either party has ever undertaken-their
opposition alliance rivals the popularity previously garnered by
Ter-Petrosian. The Dashnaktsutiun, realizing it has no charismatic
leaders to speak of, supports Raffi Hovhanisian in his bid for the
presidency. Members of both parties are harassed by the authorities
and some are even beaten and jailed, but their dedication to the
integrity of the Armenian state and its citizens does not waiver. The
people are ecstatic. The blindsided authorities are marginalized and
the opposition wins the majority of seats in parliament; in 2013,
Hovhanisian is elected president and the ARF heads the government.
Then the new authorities begin cleaning house: They break the
monopoly on imports enjoyed by the oligarchic families; the rampant
corruption that had infested the tax, customs, and police departments
is virtually eradicated; and the prices of goods and services begin
to stabilize. The rule of law is enforced throughout the republic and
for the first time in the country’s post-Soviet history the courts
rule independently. Countless thousands of emigrants return home,
and frustrated businessmen from the Armenian Diaspora are invited
to reinvest in Armenia, with the former red-tape strewn processes of
establishing corporations streamlined and tax collection transparent.
3. Talks break down between the Congress and the authorities. With
the renewed charismatic calls by firebrand opposition cheerleader
Pashinian, ever-smitten with Ter-Petrosian, the Congress wins an
overwhelming number of parliamentary seats despite the elections
being marred by irregularities and fraud, yet they remain an
unquestionably sizable minority. The Heritage and ARF-Dashnaktsutiun
parties retain their modest number of seats but remain undermined by
the pro-government coalition, while the arrogant Congress leadership
continues to mock them as being insignificant players not part of the
“real opposition,” insisting that the parties should have joined them
rather than being obstinately opposed. The Congress shows its thanks
to Sarkisian for refraining from cracking down on its supporters by
backing away from fielding a presidential candidate to challenge
his reelection (so long as Congress leaders are promised a couple
of seats in the government in a display of unity). The rift between
Dashnaktsutiun and Heritage is never repaired, and both parties
remain without influence, their members twiddling their thumbs during
parliamentary sessions. Sarkisian, with the support of both the
“real opposition” and the pro-government coalition, slides to victory.
Although these predictions may seem fantastic, perhaps even
preposterous to some, they are no less credible than the blowhard
forecasts printed on the opinion pages of daily Armenian newspapers.
But my point should be obvious: In Armenian politics, anything and
nothing can be expected.