Posted, 06/17/2011

Garry Kasparov has a suggestion
By Fred Hiatt

He is the greatest chess player of his generation, but when asked to
predict Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s next move, Garry Kasparov
demurs.

`When you play chess, you have rules,’ Kasparov told a few of us
during a visit to The Post Thursday. `He can change the rules whenever
he needs.’

Still, Kasparov isn’t reluctant to offer sharply delineated views on
Russia’s future, and for a couple of reasons they command
attention. His intellect is as formidable as you might imagine – he is
probably best known in this country for taking on IBM’s chess-playing
computer more than a decade ago – but it’s not just that. Kasparov is
also far more charismatic than you might imagine, coming across as
balanced, funny and very human. Given that chess champions are rock
stars in Russia, he could have settled into an easy life of celebrity
there. Or he could have joined the opposition to Putin’s kleptocracy,
as he has, but from a safe and comfortable apartment in London or
Manhattan.

Instead, he has maintained a life in Russia, where – given the grisly
fate met by many journalists and human rights advocates – he lives
with bodyguards and anxiety.

He does not live without hope for Russia’s future, however. And to
that end, he came to Washington (meeting with executive and
congressional officials) with three essential messages:

First, the ostensible power struggle between Putin, now prime
minister, and his hand-picked president, Dmitry Medvedev, is a
sham. Putin pulls the strings. Americans, including the Obama
administration, have been taken in by this shadow play, Kasparov says,
which is useful for Putin – Medvedev gives the regime a friendlier
face to the West – but essentially irrelevant.

Second, Putinism is not working, and therefore its continuation is not
inevitable. Despite being an oil exporter at a time of sky-high oil
prices, Russia’s economy is ailing. Capital is fleeing, infrastructure
is decaying, and people are noticing.

`I think the patience of ordinary Russians could be running out,’
Kasparov said. `They can see that the one thing that’s going up is the
number of Russian billionaires on the Forbes list.’

And having quarantined Russia from democracy movements that flared in
Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan, Putin now has to worry about
infection from the Arab Spring. `Putin did everything to prevent an
Orange Revolution, but now comes the ghost of Tahrir Square,’ Kasparov
said.

Finally, the United States has at its disposal a practical tool that
could help undermine Putin’s hold on power – specifically, a bill
sponsored by Maryland Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin that would ban visas
for and freeze assets of Russian officials implicated in rank abuses
of justice or abrogations of freedom inside Russia.

`To outsiders, this may not seem like much,’ Kasparov said. But it
would undermine what Kasparov sees as the fundamental principle and
purpose of Putin’s regime: that officials who are loyal to Putin can
accumulate assets and park them abroad – and that Putin can protect
them.

`If you are loyal to the boss, to the capo di tutti capi, you are
safe, inside Russia and out – in Dubai, London, Lake Geneva,’ Kasparov
said. `If something happens to even a small group of these people, it
will cause a dent in the monolith of power.’

Putin has bought off and corrupted so many European officials that
Europe will not act first, Kasparov said. But the United States could
– and because Russian oligarchs increasingly are investing in the
United States, U.S. action would make a big difference.

`Don’t tell me you don’t have leverage,’ Kasparov said.

Your move, Congress.

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