THE MORE WE WAIT, THE MORE WAR-MINDED PEOPLE WILL BECOME

news.az
June 21 2011
Azerbaijan

News.Az interviews Samuel Lussac, a PhD candidate at the Institute
of Political Studies in Bordeaux, studying relations in the South
Caucasus.

Russian foreign minister S.Lavrov said that Moscow won~Rt push
post-soviet republics to choose between EU and CIS. Are you sure that
Eurointegration process and collaboration in CIS don~Rt contradict
each other and there will not be any pressure measures from the
Russian side on its post-soviet members?

In theory, there is no contradiction between integration within the
Eu and integration within the CIS. However, it is likely that, at
least for some parts of the Russian ruling power, Eurointegration of
some countries within Russian chasse gardée would not be well accepted.

Even if it has multiple reasons, the recent Russian-Georgian war is a
good example of how Moscow may react to post-Soviet countries getting
close to the EU or NATO.

But, this kind of thinkings is coming from a Russian old guard, who
still believe in force to defend the Empire. The new generations coming
on, led by President Medvedev, understand in my opinion that Russia
actually lost the war with Georgia in 2008. It ended up recognizing
the independence of two breakaway regions, which now want to be part
of Russia. In the meantime, the security situation is getting worst
and worst in the North Caucasus.

In my opinion, this new generation in power will less and less apply
pressure to defend Russia’s interests. They will use more subtle tools,
such as economic cooperation. In this perspective, I believe that
S. Lavrov’s statement is a prelude to less hard power from Russia
and more soft power.

We all know about huge and powerful Armenian diaspora in France. Has
it any influence on the foreign policy of France in the region of
the South Caucasus.

I have to say that it is very difficult to assess the role of the
Armenian Diaspora on French foreign policy. In France, foreign policy
is made by the President, not the Parliament, and I don’t believe
the Armenian Diaspora has much leverages on him. It is one thing to
get the Parliament recognizing the 1915 Armenian genocide. But it
is completely different to have the President exclusively supporting
Yerevan to the detriment of Baku.

The only leverage the Armenian Diaspora has on the President is during
pre-elections times. As any politician, the President needs to ensure
the support of their voters, including those of the Armenian Diaspora.

In this case, the President may avoid making statements in favour of
Azerbaijan or Turkey. For instance, this may explain why President
Sarkozy has been so reluctant to visit Azerbaijan in the past few
years. He is targeting a reelection next year and he just can’t afford
to upset some of his potential voters.

Still, to make it short, the power of the Armenian Diaspora in France
should not be overestimated. The leverages it has on the French
foreign policy are very small.

A few years ago one could hardly meet a balanced article in the
French media regarding the Karabakh conflict, almost all the biggest
newspapers writing on the situation in our region were pro-Armenian.

It seems that the situation has changed for a better. What is
perception of Azerbaijan and the Karabakh conflict in the French
media now?

I am not sure about this to be honest. French newspapers are
independent and I don’t think they have exclusively promoted Armenian
point of view. Still, it is true that, thanks to its Diaspora, Armenia
has been able to influence French people’s point of view over the
situation in Karabakh.

However, as you suggest, the situation is changing now. First,
the Azerbaijan Embassy in Paris has been tremendously proactive in
the last year to enhance knowledge about Azerbaijan in France. They
have organized cultural and political events almost every month and
I think they have been very successful. In my opinion, such a policy
is the only effective strategy to win hearts and minds in France?

Second, the Heydar Aliyev Foundation, led by First Lady Mehriban
Aliyeva, has also been very proactive. The event it organized at UNESCO
in April was a great success and has contributed to the promotion of
Azerbaijan in France. I consider this Foundation has a very promising
tool to change the situation not only in France but also in Europe. I
heard it is considering to establish a European branch in Paris and
I think it is a bright idea.

Finally, the Eurovision victory can create a tremendous momentum. For
the first time in their life, people have heard about Azerbaijan in
a peaceful and positive way. For once, it was not about Karabakh but
about music. Azerbaijan has to capitalize on this to demonstrate a
peaceful, pro-European and democratic orientation. In my opinion,
this is the only way to change Azerbaijan’s perception in France.

Do you share optimism about upcoming summit on Karabakh in Kazan on
June 24-th?

I want to. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have missed the windows of
opportunity to solve the conflict in 1999, 2004 and 2008. There
is a new one now and I hope they will both take it. I hope that the
decision-makers now understand that nothing positive can emerge from a
new war in Karabakh. Peaceful negotiations are the only way to solve
this conflict, which lasts for too long.

Still, I think the biggest challenge is not to sign an agreement in
Kazan at the end of the week but to make such an agreement accepted
and supported by the people, both in Armenia and in Azerbaijan. The
leaders in both countries have to ensure that their people will support
a peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict. With support of the
people, everything is possible. Because the more we wait, the more
war-minded people will become. And nothing positive can come out
of this.