NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN THE USA-PAKISTANI RELATIONS
ARMENPRESS
JUNE 22, 2011
YEREVAN
The murder of Osama bin Laden May 1 2011 by the special American
squad created additional tension in the US-Pakistani relations that
are being described by analysts as “cold friendly”.
Obama’s administration adopted policy of gradual restriction of
American military engagement in Iraq and Afghanistan. For registering
essential success in this issue the USA needs ensuring certain
stability in the mentioned states. The situation in this respect
is more complicated in Afghanistan where despite of the decision of
Obama to send American troops, Taliban and other anti-western bands
continue the successful fight against the coalition forces headed by
NATO. The Pakistani special services also have certain role in this
issue. In spite of the American pressures they continue assisting a
number of Afghan bands ignoring the demand of the US side.
At the same time it is necessary to note that the force institutions
of Pakistan have noticeable dependence from the US military and
financial assistance, which does not allow them to finally worsen
relations with the United States.
During the recent years a quite dual situation has been created in the
US-Pakistani relations and the discovery of Osama bin Laden near one
of the military academies of Pakistan finally sharpened the relations.
The Pakistani force establishments view the terrorism bands in
Afghanistan as a tool of strategic significance for restricting India’s
impact in Afghanistan. During the recent years India has been actively
engaged in the events taking place in Afghanistan and the force system
of Pakistan finds that the further strengthening of India’s positions
in Afghanistan is a direct threat to the national security of Pakistan,
taking into consideration the existing controversies between the two
states in Kashmir issue. At the same time, Pakistan views the impact
on the bands operating in Afghanistan as a way to maintain its own
impact in that country after the USA withdraws its troops.
One of the essential factors agreeing the USA’s policy toward Pakistan
is the issue of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. The further pressure on the
security system of that country may bring to drastic destabilization
of the situation which may cause unpredictable consequences after
the nuclear weapon appears in the arms of terrorists.
In the created situation, Obama’s administration, on one hand tries
to urge Pakistan stop assistance to terrorists, on the other avoids
actions that may endanger the inner stability.
Nevertheless, the US authorities clearly realize that without
suspending Pakistan’s assistance to terrorist in the territory of
Afghanistan the situation in that country will not show any signs of
stabilization, a circumstance which may be of essential significance
in the pre-context of the coming presidential elections in the USA
in 2012.
In the sphere of foreign policy one of the main promises of Obama was
the suspension of war in Iraq and directing the freed resources to
the improvement of situation in Afghanistan. The absence of concrete
results in the issue may have serious negative impact on the public’s
ideas of Obama’s foreign policy.
In the created conditions the American administration will more
probably try to use “carrot-and-stick policy”. The role of carrot will
be the assistance of billion of dollars provided to Pakistan, as well
as provision of loans by a number of international organizations –
World Bank, International Monetary Fund.
The US authorities will try to undertake steps directed toward
normalization of relations between India and Pakistan that have been
interrupted in 2008 after the terrorist act in Mumbai. In this way
Obama’s administration is trying to reach suspension of Pakistan’s
policy directed toward the decrease of India’s impact through the
terrorism organizations operating in Afghanistan.
As to the “stick”, in this issue this role may be assumed by the US
Congress. The legislative body may organize hearings and discussions
on the expediency of provision of military assistance to Pakistan,
mechanisms of distribution of that assistance, remarking the
possibility of restriction of the aid or agree it with the degree of
participation of Pakistani special services in the activities against
the terrorism organizations.
An important element of the new policy of the USA toward Pakistan
may be the implementation of joint activities with countries having
close relations with Pakistan – China and Saudi Arabia. Both China and
Saudi Arabia are not interested in the further destabilization of the
situation in Pakistan. The Chinese authorities are quite concerned
from the prospect of reinforcement of position of radical Islam
in its borderline region. The reinforcement of extreme Islamists
in Afghanistan may promote the dissemination of radical religious
ideas among the Muslim population of China and become a stimulus for
separatist strives.
In the created situation the main issue of the US Administration is to
reach the implementation of reforms in the Pakistani special services
as different terrorism organizations operating in Afghanistan get
main assistance not from the Pakistani army but special services. The
gradual reforms of these services and the reduction of impact of
the forces supporting Islamist extremists will not only promote the
stabilization of the situation in Afghanistan but will also create
grounds for the stabilization of inner political life in Pakistan
and increase the security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
From: Baghdasarian