TURKEY, ISRAEL AND ARMENIA

Today’s Zaman

June 24 2011
Turkey

The recent electoral victory of the Justice and Development Party
(AK Party), which has held on to power thanks to the support of half
of Turkey’s population, may motivate several countries to clarify
their policy towards Turkey.

There is, however, some bad news for people in Europe who oppose
Turkey’s accession to the EU on the grounds of their opposition to
Turkey’s Muslim majority: While they will probably not have to deal
with Turkey inside the EU for many years to come, they will nonetheless
have to work together with Turkey in the European Council, NATO and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the near future with increasing
frequency. So, maybe it is time for them to decide about Turkey.

We have to admit that the election outcome augurs a difficult period
for those who were hoping to get rid of the AK Party and to see Turkey
governed by a neocon-like approach. Regardless of the debate about
whether or not the AK Party is functioning in a fully democratic
manner, this party is the political actor that democratized Turkey.

Those in bordering countries, from Armenia to Syria, who want democracy
in their countries are encouraged by the AK Party’s victory; in
return, this party has become a disturbing actor in the eyes of many
governments in the Caucasus and in the Middle-East.

Turkey is not capable of dictating every outcome in the region by
itself. However, it is capable of pressuring Syria to implement
reforms, and if Turkey manages to do that, it may do the same in
Azerbaijan, Armenia and Israel in a more credible manner. These
countries can tell Turkey to start by cleaning its own house first,
but the Turkish people have just demonstrated their will and readiness
to tidy up their country. The Turkish government is also aware that
Turkey will be more efficient in the surrounding region once Turkey’s
domestic problems are resolved.

It appears that Armenia and Israel have understood the Turkish voters’
message and that they follow Turkey’s domestic political developments
very closely. They probably predict that a party which has won
three consecutive elections and which benefits from the support of
50 percent of the people will feel free to take more audacious steps
in foreign policy.

Recent press reports indicate that these two countries have already
begun to test their predictions. The Israeli government relentlessly
announces that it wants to normalize its relations with Turkey, and
the latter has confirmed that negotiations have been taking place for
some time with Israeli officials. As for Armenia, it has expressed its
will to initiate talks with Turkey “without conditions.” These press
reports also intend to test the reaction of the Turkish public to these
developments, but what is more important is that they prove that these
two countries are trying to normalize their relations with Turkey.

The normalization of Turkey’s relations with Israel and Armenia will
make it difficult for the EU to reach a decision about Turkey, because
it’s easier to say no when our relations are on bad terms with our
neighbors. Nevertheless, the EU’s decision about Turkey is of crucial
importance for the restructuration of the Middle East and the Caucasus.

The fate of Palestine is not so disconnected from the fate of
Nagorno-Karabakh. Everybody knows that the developments in Palestine
have an effect on Iran, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon, but one mustn’t
minimize its effects on Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, or on
Nagorno-Karabakh, Ossetia and Abkhazia. Moreover, the developments
in all these regions have an influence on maintaining the balance
between Russia, the US and the EU. The Armenia-Turkey-Israel line has
a decisive importance as the tone of their relations with each other
will facilitate a way for others in the region to find their place in
this balance. In brief, the existing conditions require rapprochement
between these three countries.