MARCH 1 2008 INCIDENTS IN SERZH SARGSYAN’S HANDS A MEASURE TO RESTRAIN ROBERT KOCHARYAN’S AMBITIONS
by Ashot Safaryan

arminfo
Monday, June 27, 11:37

Interview with Karapet Rubinyan, former vice speaker of the Armenian
National Assembly, ex-member of the oppositional Armenian National
Congress

Mr. Rubinyan, what do you think of the domestic political situation in
Armenia in the light of ANC-authorities dialogue? Is there an agenda
of those negotiations?

The ANC’s behavior seems quite strange to me, taking into account
the uncertainty of relations between the Congress and the authorities.

Moreover, the ANC does not want at all to inform thepublic of its
intentions about the talks with the authorities. On the other hand,
the positive result of these talks is the release of political
prisoners, which should be considered as the authorities’ step to
reduce the tension.

Consequently, at the moment there is no such tension that would allow
thinking about a fight against the regime, and there are all premises
for regular parliamentary election.

Is there any use of fighting the regime now when the authorities have
fulfilled all the basic demands of the opposition hereby significantly
easing the situation?

I think, the nature of the ruling regime in Armenia has undergone no
essential changes despite the fact that the political prisoners have
been released and the Liberty Square has been returned to people for
rallies. The authorities have only removed the consequences of their
actions, but the primary reasons have remained: the rigged results of
the elections, monopolies in the economy, fusion of business and power,
and as a result, the socio-economic state of the citizens, which is
getting worse and worse with every passing day. If the current state
of affairs continues, social shocks will be inevitable in the future
despite the certain reduction of tension. I cannot forecast whether the
Congress will agree to aggravation of the situation by revising its
loyal policy towards the authorities or it will be replaced by other
forces capable to conduct the people’s protest in the needed course.

The Congress has repeatedly declared that a “velvet revolution”
started in Armenia. It is not likely that ANC is going to stay aside
of possible tension…

I do not understand the ANC’s position, according to which one can gain
a change of power without any shocks, while the ANC representatives
describe a quite fantastic scenario: after all the concessions demanded
by the Congress, Serzh Sargsyan will allegedly sit at the negotiation
table and send in his resignation. This is ridiculous. Serzh Sargsyan
may leave power under compulsion only.

This compulsion may be either in the non-constitutional way by a
group of people, which is absolutely unacceptable, or by means of a
nationwide protest. As regards the course chosen by the Congress, it
may not only fail to lead to the second scenario, but also push off
many supporters. Over the past three years the ANC has not managed
to correctly organize its activity or direct the protesting mood of
the citizens to the needed course.

You have mentioned establishment of new political forces.

Establishment of Free Democrats Party resulted in a boom among
political experts and Mass Media. Do you bear any relation to creation
of that party given the fact that its initiators are your former
colleagues from APNM?

I bear relation to the given party, at least, because many of my
friends joined it after they left the Armenian Pan-National Movement.

Did that party split the APNM and, in fact, the Congress?

Withdrawal of the creators of this party from the APNM has become a
result of the processes that occurred in summer 2010, when despite
the APNM principles – liberalism and democracy, several members of
the APNM were excluded from the Board of APNM, including the deputy
chairman of Board Khachatur Kokobelyan. At the same time, no clear
explanation followed this process. The only thing this was motivated
by was the alleged cooperation of Kokobelyan with the authorities.

But in this case, it could be quite possible to announce this openly
and ground such accusations instead of playing behind the scenes. In
fact, I think that Levon Ter-Petrosyan has decided to completely
take APNM under his control, and he simply did not trust the group
of people excluded from the Board of APNM.

The former members of APNM have a great experience in politics,
most of them held high posts in the structure of the party. To all
appearances, they have no desire to leave politics today, and

they have no other way to remain in politics but forming a new party,
and there is nothing extraordinary. As regards the talks that this is
allegedly the project of the authorities trying to split the Congress,
I think that one should not make immediate conclusions, let’s live
and see.

How consistent the country’s leadership will be in investigating the
tragic developments of March 2008 in Yerevan, considering that Serzh
Sargsyan touched upon that issue also in his speech at PACE?

The matter should concern not the investigation, as everything was
investigated and detected long ago, but bringing the officials to
responsibility. I think, one of the officials is Serzh Sargsyan,
who assured that the March 1 case will be revised. I am skeptical
about the prospect of bringing all the culprits of the tragedy to
responsibility, as I do not think that Serzh Sargsyan will punish
himself. The fate of the rest of the March massacre initiators depends
on the political environment.

He thinks that Sargsyan’s statement is formal and it aims to restrain
the ambitions of Robert Kocharyan, who is thoroughly looking for a
place in the sun, rather than to implement the demands of the Armenian
National Congress. As regards Kocharyan’s attempts to become active
in the politics, they are more than obvious, taking into account his
meetings with the presidents or premiers of some countries, as well
as his attacks on the mass media, etc.

What did the dialogue with the Congress give to the authorities?

During the recent rally of ANC stressed the necessity of listening
to “the equal party” to the negotiations. How can the people that
have usurped the power be equal partners? This means that Sargsyan
has significantly strengthened his positions. This deal brought
nothing to the people. As for the Congress, it has got nothing except
disappointment of the people. The only way out of the situation for ANC
is to announce at the June 30 rally that the Congress has no topic of
a dialogue with the authorities and will continue the fight as before.

What parties are you going to cooperate with after withdrawal from
the ANC? You have earlier expressed your support to Raffi Hovannisian,
Leader of the Heritage Party…

Unfortunately, there is no culture of inter-party cooperation in
Armenia. Nevertheless, there are certain chances for cooperation with
separate representatives of some political forces. I think parties
can promote civil initiatives to demand and achieve domination of
the law in the country, restoration of the legal bases of relations
between the authorities and public. A large front of civil fight is
necessary to settle this task.