WILL TIGRAN SARGSYAN LEAVE?

HAKOB BADALYAN

Lragir.am

29/07/2011

The People Newspaper informed that people working with Tigran Sargsyan
noticed that recently he has changed. He is indifferent, and he tells
the ministers who come up to him to discuss something, he says he is
tired and wants to get through the discussion quickly.

Perhaps, there will be an official reaction on Tigran Sargsyan’s mood
and state of soul but there is nothing strange that a prime minister
may get depressed or tired. A prime minister is a person and, as any
other person, he may get tired or feel depressed.

Besides, in evaluating Tigran Sargsyan’s economic policy, one
must admit that in the past three years he has been in a difficult
situation and has had to resolve complicated problems. Evaluations of
effectiveness, rightness, adequacy of these solutions may be different
but it is beyond doubt that in the past three years Sargsyan has been
operating in a complex situation.

Besides, Tigran Sargsyan’s factor acquires an interesting shade in the
context of negotiations between the Congress and the authorities. The
government agreed to discuss the issue of snap elections because it
didn’t want to refuse to discuss anything. Besides, the government
announces that there is no reason for snap elections, so they will
not agree to hold snap elections.

The Armenian National Congress demands that the government should hold
elections in October, otherwise it threatens to enter confrontation.

To say that it’s a great threat to the government would be wrong. But
it would also be wrong to say that the government does not have a
serious reason for serious worry. Maybe a lot depends on the external
reaction, whether this time the government will be allowed to deal
with the opposition violently.

However, politics is based on arguments rather than math formulas,
so the parties may succeed in persuading each other and their external
partners with the help of different arguments. So it is not ruled out
that in order to avoid snap elections the authorities will have the
cabinet resign and appoint a new government, inviting the Armenian
National Congress, as well as making a deal with the parliamentary
majority that it will be not sabotage the Congress’s prime minister.

The Congress is ready to discuss the option. The coordinator of the
Congress Levon Zurabyan told Radio Liberty that if the government
refuses snap elections, it must offer serious systemic steps instead,
which they will be able to present to the society to justify the
tactics of avoiding confrontation. The resignation of the government
and offering the post of prime minister to the opposition is a serious
systemic step, at least at first sight.

It is not ruled out that Tigran Sargsyan is going to leave office, or
at least a proper information atmosphere is created in case he has to
leave, not to have it sound as thunder in the clear sky. It seems that
there is no need for such a precaution because the economic situation
and Tigran Sargsyan’s weak economic policy make his resignation an
expected step. On the other hand, part of the society understands that
the problem is not the prime minister but the president who nominated
him. Perhaps the only prime ministers who conducted an independent
policy rather than were administrators were Vazgen Manukyan and
Vazgen Sargsyan.

On the other hand, Tigran Sargsyan’s possible dismissal may be
evidence to two things. Either Serzh Sargsyan failed to reshuffle
the government and push Hovik Abrahamyan to the background so he
removes Tigran Sargsyan to prevent dual government on the eve of the
elections, or Serzh Sargsyan is ceding government little by little,
and the first move, E2 E4, will be Tigran Sargsyan’s dismissal.

Although, in both cases Serzh Sargsyan is ceding power, and the problem
is whether he will hand power to the Congress or to the traditional
wing of the pro-government criminal-oligarchic system.

It seems that Serzh Sargsyan belongs to this wing and he doesn’t need
to cede anything. In reality, this is the first impression. Of course,
Serzh Sargsyan belongs to this system, and it may be highly relative
that Tigran Sargsyan does not belong to this wing, but in this case
the problem is other. It is one thing to belong to this system, to
be one of its architects, and it is another thing to manage the system.

Do you manage the system or does the system manage you? This is the
question for Serzh Sargsyan. And Tigran Sargsyan’s dismissal will
indicate to who Serzh Sargsyan will hand over government.

Yet there is another option too. Tigran Sargsyan did his job, his role
of veil for the home political crisis, under social tension, mitigating
fundamental disposition of the society toward the government. Now this
veil is not effective, and may already irritate the society with words
which are not translated into action, and Serzh Sargsyan might need
to change the prime minister, especially that he sat at the table to
negotiate with the opposition, and there is no confrontation which
will require full consolidation inside the government.