TURKISH-RUSSIAN POLITICAL TIES ‘AT A STANDSTILL’
Lala B.

news.az
Aug 16, 2011
Azerbaijan

Interview with Dr Hakan Gunes, associate professor at Istanbul
University’s Faculty of Political Studies.

Is the normalization of Turkish-Armenian ties still on the table and
what role does this issue play in the Karabakh settlement process?

The normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations requires progress in
resolution of the Karabakh conflict. Dialogue needs to be created
between the parties in order for this problem to be settled. We
should not expect the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations
first and only then the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, or vice
versa. The Karabakh conflict must be settled first to be followed
by normalizing ties between Turkey and Armenia. These issues must be
settled simultaneously, as the main regional project.

Ties between Turkey and Russia have been invigorated in recent years.

Can these ties play a positive role in the settlement of conflicts
in the South Caucasus?

Naturally, the development of relations between Ankara and Moscow can
play a definite role in the resolution of conflicts in the region. But
while Turkish-Russian ties develop in economic spheres, political
relations between these countries remain at a standstill and have
no impact on regional processes. Turkey and Russia have not settled
their political differences, which is why the problems between them
still remain.

However, despite the great role of Russia in the settlement of the
Karabakh conflict, its approach to this issue does not correspond to
the approach of Azerbaijan and Turkey.

Secondly, after the conflict between Georgia and Russia, Turkey,
alongside the United States, has supported Georgia. In this respect,
Turkish-Russian relations are not cloudless at all, because relations
between Georgia and Russia are still problematic.

Naturally, the development of Turkish-Russian relations would help to
achieve peace and stability in the Caucasus. However, unfortunately,
Turkish-Russian relations are currently not in a place that allows
for hope for their rapprochement in the near future.

How likely is the resumption of hostilities between Azerbaijan and
Armenia at this stage of the Karabakh conflict resolution?

A war is not considered realistic under normal circumstances in the
region. But, frankly, it should be noted that wars sometimes cannot be
a continuation of the foreign policy of states. A war in some cases may
aim to solve the internal problems of a country. One can speak about
possible war only when one of the parties feels the need to start one
itself. For example, the first Chechen war ended the presidency of
Boris Yeltsin while the second Chechen war strengthened Putin. Thus,
indirectly, wars are not merely a continuation of foreign policy. In
the event of renewed war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it will be
linked to domestic politics in these countries.

President Serzh Sargsyan said recently that his generation “liberated”
Nagorno-Karabakh, and future generations should “return” “historic”
Armenian lands in Turkey. What are your comments on this?

Serzh Sargsyan’s statement is related to domestic politics in Armenia.

If you ask Sargsyan about this in a different situation, he would
not repeat his statement. True, Sargsyan will not ask forgiveness
from Turkey, but will try to make excuses for his words.

Politicians make strident statements for domestic consumption in
order to achieve goals at home. However, this statement may not
become Armenian policy in future, because we are talking about a
region, namely, the Turkish area of â~@~Kâ~@~KAgri, where there is
no single Armenian.

Apparently, Armenia wants to use this statement to spoil relations
with Turkey even more, although Turkey is the only way to obtain
oxygen for the livelihood of impoverished Armenia.

It should also be noted that Armenia creates problems for Turkey
through its diaspora in the US and Europe. However, Armenia is a small
country for Turkey and Armenia will suffer more substantial losses
in the event of the further deterioration of relations between them.

Therefore, I think Sargsyan’s statement is ungrounded and he will
not admit to his own words later.