ARMENIA AFTER ELECTIONS
By Susanna Petrosyan

Vestnik Kavkaza
May 14 2012
Russia

The recent elections to the Armenian Parliament resulted in
radical changes within the parliament’s structure. First of all,
now the radical opposition, the Armenian National Congress (ANC),
is present there. Among the MPs from other parties, including the
ruling Republican Party and the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ coalition the
number of professional political experts increased considerably.

According to the speaker of the former parliament, Samvel Nikoyan,
the new parliament’s composition gives an opportunity for creating
a powerful opposition coalition. Political experts say that the new
parliament will be less inert, however, there are still some questions
to be answered.

The ruling party got 69 of 131 mandates, and the coalition party ‘Land
of law’ got 6. Experts predict that despite the big number of mandates
the Republican Party got it will still create a new coalition with
its most devoted ally – the ‘Land of law’. Experts also say that the
latter will get 2 or 3 minister’s portfolios and that its head, Arthur
Bagdasaryan will retain his position as the Secretary of Defense.

One could also foresee active cooperation between the two opposition
parties – the ANC and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF).

The ANC got 7,1% of the votes thus obtaining 7 mandates. Some say that
those who are disappointed in such an outcome have already started
to leave the opposition coalition. For example, Aram Sarksyan ,
the head of the ‘Res publica’ party, which is the third in the ANC
proportional list, has already given up his mandated and promulgated
his disagreement with the ANC position on a number of issues. Moreover,
the head of the ANC, ex-President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, also gave up
his mandate as he didn’t want to head such a small political fraction.

However, he stressed that it does not mean that he gives up his
political strife.

Officially the ANC was defeated on these elections, but in fact the
very fact of entering the parliament for a Congress that used to be a
‘street opposition’ is an achievement.

The most interesting post-election intrigue, however, was that of the
‘Prosperous Armenia’ party that got 36 parliamentary seats. Would
it enter the ruling coalition? The only scenario in which the ruling
party would offer such a coalition to the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ is if
the leader of the latter, Gagik Tsukeryan, supports Serge Sarksyan
as the presidential candidate in 2013. If the ‘Prosperous Armenia’
won’t become a part of the ruling coalitions its members-ministers
might loose their positions in the government.

However, according the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ chairperson Vague
Ovannisyan his party does not need such a coalition and, moreover, it
would come in conflict with political ethics. The ruling party itself
hasn’t yet made the final decision on this issue. If the ‘Prosperous
Armenia’ which got some 450,000 votes, enters the coalition, it would
get new offices in the central and regional government, thus gaining
access to administrative resources. On the other hand, a lot of people
voted for the party seeing in it the only viable alternative to the
ruling party, and it is obvious that the party’s electorate doesn’t
see the two parties (the PPA and the RPA) getting together again. So
the coalition might ruin the PPA’s electoral support.

If the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ does not join the ruling coalition it
de facto becomes an opposition party, so it will have to cooperate
with the ANC and the ARF. However, the major part of the ‘Prosperous
Armenia’ MPs have never been in the opposition before and it is yet
unclear whether they are ready for that. The opinions of compitent
experts on whether the PPA would join the ruling coalition or the
opposition differ.

The PPA’s position is the key issue for the future of the Armenian
politics. And it is most likely that the final decision will be taken
personally by the party’s leader.

From: A. Papazian