Baku is arming while the oil is not up
Abundance of armament never brought anything good to Greater Caucasus.

Azerbaijan has now another cause of `pride’; it is recognized one of
the world’s most militarized states. Azerbaijan is ranked 8th by the
annual Global Militarization Index compiled by Bonn International
Center for Conversion. A key indicator representing the level of
militarization of a country is the comparison of military expenditures
with its GDP. The U.S. which outstrips all other states by its total
military spending is placed only the 30th. Another indicator which is
taken into account in the Index is the number of the reserve.

December 22, 2012

PanARMENIAN.Net – No wonder Israel tops the list here: being in a
totally hostile environment, the Israeli Defense Forces must be fully
armed. The number of their reserve army ready to arrive at respective
military units within an hour is simply amazing; Israel’s reserve
accounts to approximately 400 000.

Strange enough, Singapore comes second in the ranking. A city-state
would hardly need so much armament; however, the proximity of China is
perhaps troublesome for Singapore. Syria and Russia are placed third
and fourth, respectively, which is quite natural and requires no
explanations. Jordan, Cyprus and Kuwait come next, with Azerbaijan
ranking 8th. Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are the last ones in the top ten
of most militarized states worldwide.

Now let’s get back to Azerbaijan. Its military spending in 2012 hit $
3,2 bln, while the GDP made $67,5 bln. In 2011, Azerbaijan signed a
major military agreement with Israel accounting for $1,6 bln. In
addition, it imported arms from Russia and several other countries.
The targets of this armament are obvious: not only Armenia, but Iran
as well, in case the war is really unleashed. Apparently, hostilities
against Nagorno Karabakh won’t require such amount of armament. Still,
the forces that turn Azerbaijan into a powder-barrel go for much risk.
The social tensions in the country along with anti-Armenian statements
and increasing hysteria can finally blow up namely Azerbaijan. In some
hands, the blast might hit Armenia and Karabakh. However, realization
will soon follow the euphoria, and the same blow may turn against the
Aliyev family as well.

Meanwhile, we’ve repeatedly mentioned that oil production is steadily
declining in Azerbaijan. Richard Morningstar, the U.S. Ambassador to
Azerbaijan declared that Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli oilfield reserves will
be depleted, and the energy sector revenues have already fallen. In
this regard, he stressed the need to diversify Azerbaijan’s economy
saying the country should abandon its oil-dependency within the coming
10 years. If Aliyev’s clan maintains power for another 10 years, it
risks facing financial and moral bankruptcy. Most likely, Baku is
rushing to buy expensive toys, being perfectly aware that it soon will
not be able to afford even an Ð?Ð?-47. This is an exaggeration, of
course, but this is the current situation in Baku now, and it should
hardly be proud of being the 8th among the most militarized countries
of the world.

Also, it should be noted that abundance of armament never brought
anything good to Greater Caucasus. It never did, to either the buyers
or the suppliers.

Karine Ter-Sahakian

From: A. Papazian