While the deep state waits¦

02 January 2013, Wednesday

MARKAR ESAYAN
m.esayan@todayszaman.com

2013 will certainly be a year of major developments, overshadowed by
the coming year of 2014. It is no secret that in 2014, the
presidential election will be held and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
ErdoÄ?an intends to run for president. He wants to be a president who
can rule the country. Therefore, a proposal to turn the country’s
regime into a presidential one has become part of the work on the new
constitution. The intention is to introduce a semi-presidential system
or, if that is not possible, a system with the president maintaining
his party affiliation before the 2014 presidential system and which
will allow ErdoÄ?an to become president for two successive terms. This
means that he will be in office until 2024, and this fits like a glove
the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AK Party) targets for
2023, i.e., the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Turkish
Republic.
Of course, it is quite natural for a political leader to harbor such
goals. ErdoÄ?an has been one of the most popular leaders in recent
years. The public loves him. He has implemented noteworthy reforms.
The economic situation of the poor has improved considerably. ErdoÄ?an
has managed to save the country from an economic crisis and made the
country’s economy a stable one. The fight against the deep state
network found political backing during the AK Party’s terms in
government. Although it has been in office for the last three terms,
the AK Party does not have any challenging rival. But this does not
mean that the risk of anti-democratic methods being employed against
democratically elected governments has been completely deflected.

The coup plan found in hard drives that were sent by the General Staff
to the court hearing the criminal case against Ergenekon — a
clandestine organization nested within the state trying to overthrow
or manipulate the democratically elected government — acknowledges
that the ruling AK Party cannot be overthrown via a conventional coup
and argues that the army should change its strategies of fighting
against the government. These hard drives contain about 3 million
documents prepared between 2005 and 2009 and reveal updated
psychological warfare plans. Given the fact that these documents were
prepared in the very recent past, it is clear that those who argue
that Turkey has fought off the deep state and coups are utterly wrong.

For instance, in a memo prepared for the Operations Department on Aug.
30, 2007, it was noted that the conditions for meddling with the
government are not ripe. For this reason, the memo asserts, political
instability and economic regression are needed for a potential coup
and in the current setting, an intervention with violent or
non-violent methods is not possible. `For a potential coup, we need to
wait for the country’s economy to worsen and instability to rule over
the country,’ it says. The memo was prepared just one-and-a-half
months after the AK Party was re-elected to office for the third time
by securing 47 percent of the general vote on July 22, 2007, and it
advises that the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) should, for the time
being, refrain from direct confrontation with the government. It
indicates that the TSK should wait for the AK Party to lose its social
support. `Any intervention that would be conducted without
coordination with the central powers will obviously create a heavy
price for the TSK,’ it cautions. In sum, the document says:

`The AK Party acts in harmony with the central powers which are
influential over Turkey [global capitalists, the US state and
government, the EU and Germany and France as the EU’s driving forces]
and each central power lends support voluntarily or involuntarily
according to their global interests. [¦] Under these conditions, the
best psychological warfare strategy for the coming period is to wait
for the disruption of the AK Party’s harmony with the central powers
and the weakening of global capital in parallel with the worldwide
regression. (When this happens, the AK Party’s social support will
automatically diminish.) The strategy for this transition period is to
maintain the existing power and structure of the TSK.’

In a nutshell, given the fact that the deep state has been active for
so many years in Turkey and its intention to overthrow the government
is evident as seen in the abovementioned documents, the ruling AK
Party will sign its own death warrant if it fails to maintain its
resolve to fight the deep state. This applies to the government’s
increased unwillingness to promote the country’s EU bid.

It would be best for the government to take into consideration such
big risks in making plans for 2023.