STRATFOR: PERSPECTIVES OF ARMENIA AND BELARUS IN EEU DEPEND ON RESULTS OF RUSSIA-WEST CONFRONTATION

by David Stepanyan

ARMINFO
Tuesday, February 3, 16:27

Perspectives of Russia’s two allies in the post-Soviet area – Armenia
and Belarus – in the Eurasian Economic Union depend on the results of
the Russia-West global confrontation, experts at Stratfor say. In this
light, Stratfor analysts spotlight in their report the recent statement
by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko of possible withdrawal of
his country from the Moscow-initiated EEU. “Minsk could pull out of
the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union if agreements are not kept,
but also emphasized that the country’s integration with Russia is
deep and strong. Meanwhile, Armenia has faced growing difficulties
in its conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, where Russia
plays a key role.”

Simultaneously, the report says both Yerevan and Minsk are very
likely to continue the strategic course to Moscow given Lukashenko’s
statement that emphasizes “the deep and strong integration of Belarus
and Moscow.”

“Both countries are likely to maintain their strategic orientation
toward Russia, but Belarus and Armenia will continuously re-evaluate
their positions depending on how the broader struggle between Moscow
and the West plays out,” the analysts say.

Recent developments indicate that two of Moscow’s most loyal allies in
the former Soviet periphery, Belarus and Armenia, may be reassessing
their ties with Russia in light of the country’s standoff with the
West, Stratfor analysts say.