WINTER: THE RUSSIAN-AZERBAIJANI RELATIONS

Turan Information Agency, Azerbaijan
February 10, 2015 Tuesday

by: Turan Analytical Service

Cooling is observed again in the Azerbaijani-Russian relations,
which resulted in a reversal of the last year’s summer activity when
under Western sanctions Moscow feverishly showed alternative ways of
cooperation, one of which was Azerbaijan.

At that time all possible delegations of the various branches of
the Russian government demonstrated bilateral loving dithyrambs
from promising opportunities for economic cooperation, ranging from
millions or even billions of dollars of Azerbaijani investments in
the Russian economy, and to the delivery of fruits and vegetables,
designed to replace withdrawn western imports.

However, neither the projected investments, nor plans of jointly
development of oil and gas fields, and many other things come true.

Moreover high-level relationship has frozen. The war in Ukraine and
increased power politics has become a watershed in relations between
the two countries. It is a fact that the President of Azerbaijan, as
well as the presidents of other countries bordering Russia – Belarus
and Kazakhstan, is concerned with the growing Russian threat. In his
speech at the Ministerial Conference in Baku on January 27, Ilham
Aliyev noted threats from unnamed countries and forces. Of course, his
concern was more subtle than the concern of the President Nursultan
Nazarbayev voiced in his appeal to the nation in November last year,
after Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Kazakhstan does
not have traditions of statehood. More openly expressed his thoughts
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, who in the preventive form
warned Russia from expansionist plans against Belarus, like Ukrainian.

The subject of northern threat was announced in Germany, as evidenced
by the statement of the Chancellor Angela Merkel after a meeting with
Aliyev on January 21. Then Merkel stated unequivocally that Russia
and Armenia hinder the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. This
idea can be seen regarded as a conclusion of the discussion on
the situation in the South Caucasus region with the President of
Azerbaijan. The northern line continued in February at the Munich
Security Conference, where Aliyev said that the reason for the
Ukrainian crisis is separatism and occupation, but he did not say
who encourages separatism and occupied Ukraine. However, noteworthy
are the words on the website of the President of Azerbaijan:
“If the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been resolved,
perhaps there would be no conflict in Ukraine, because they have the
same scenario, the same violation of territorial integrity, the same
result – the occupation and separatism. They are mirrored. For this
reason, of course, we expect the same attitude from the international
community and the leading countries of the world.” Indirectly, this
quote shows that he even supported the actions of the international
community with regard to Ukraine and Russia.

Aliyev is still trying to appease Russia, and at the January session
of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe on depriving
Russia of voting rights, the Azerbaijani delegation in unison said
“no” to this decision. This is confirmed also by verbal and legal
attacks on Western international institutions, on the US, and arrests
of pro-Western activists.

It seems that the Kremlin is not ready today to take into account
reverences by the Azerbaijani President, and this is evidenced by
intermediary visit of the Russian communist leader Gennady Zyuganov,
a member of the inter-party format, which involves such systemic
parties as Free Russia, the Liberal Democratic Party, United Russia
. Zyuganov is one of those few Russian politicians who can inform
Putin about the oath of eternal friendship. But this is not the fact
that Putin will to take into account the message of President Aliyev.

The situation is unpredictable, just the Russian soul. In many
ways, the further the attitude of Russia to Azerbaijan, Belarus and
Kazakhstan, will depend on the situation around Ukraine. Pressure
on neighboring countries will decrease, and become futile in case of
transition from a military crisis in the peace format, which is likely
under the intensive peacekeeping and sanctions efforts of the West.