IRAN READY TO STRIKE AZERBAIJAN’S KEY CENTERS
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments – 13 February 2015, 17:31
As is known, Iran went for a compromise with the Western community
in regard to its nuclear program and is punctually fulfilling its
technological and political commitments. Meanwhile, under the powerful
pressure of Israel and its friends in the United States, despite its
strategic defeat, the West has been able to force the great powers
to extend the talks which were practically finished by the end of 2014.
Nevertheless, Iran does not stop the talks and continues them
consistently. Interestingly, at this stage it turns out that the
United States and the West are interested in Iran’s nuclear program
more than Iran’s geopolitical position, regional political intentions.
After the revolutions in Arab states, especially after the
deteriorating relations with Turkey and Pakistan the United States and
NATO turned to Iran as a potential partner in several regions at once.
A Shiite country with a European culture and an Indo-European language
is viewed as a primary partner in the Near East.
Iran is trying to benefit from changes in the regions, take a better
position and a more important role in the regions. Besides nuclear
programs Iran designs modern weapons, primarily missiles and different
other firearms, as well as warships of different classes.
Iran is working on the improvement of Shahab-4 ballistic missiles. Now
Shahab-3 missile with a range of 1250-1300 km with a 1000 kg warhead
has been delivered to the armed forces. After tests on 25 May 2002
the missile was approved by the state commission, and 16 missiles
were supposed to be delivered to the armed forces on 1 February
2003. There is information that there is an upgraded Shahab-3 which
possesses the characteristics of Shahab-4, primarily its precision
and range. During the test of the state commission it was established
that its range reaches 1500 km.
Shahab-4 must have two modifications, with ranges of 1500 km
and 2000 km. Shahab-5 will have a range of 10,000 km, it will be
intercontinental. Shahab-4 will become a medium-range base missile
and will have modifications. For this purpose the Iranian military
state in conversations with military attaches of friendly countries
that Iran has practically created Shahab-4.
Iran also has Zelzal-2 and Fateh-110 rockets, is currently working on
Tow rocket. The missile program is an important component of Iran’s
foreign policy.
Iran has an objective to sell missiles. In May 2002 Iran proposed
Iraq to start negotiations on acquisition of missiles. Iran’s missile
program is under consideration in U.S.-Iran and UK-Iran negotiations.
Iran thereby puts pressure on the entire region and the Western
community.
There is no evidence whether Shahab-3 is already on duty. The Americans
were worried about Iran’s tactical missiles with which Iran could block
the Persian Gulf and the Caspian basin rather than Shahab-4. Formerly
it was Iran’s last attempt to use hostile Iraq’s military potential.
Iran was able to use the possibilities of neighbor countries setting
up relations with the countries of Central Asia. Pakistan did not
cooperate with Iran because it depends heavily on the United States
and Saudi Arabia.
Iran’s key achievement, however, is training of human resources,
which allowed creating self-sufficient complexes to design and produce
nuclear weapons, missiles, aviation, artillery, armored cars.
Of course, over the past 10 years the Arab states have acquired an
unprecedented quantity of arms under the impression of Iran’s success
in the sphere of defense.
Iran’s leadership announced that it does not intend to design Shahab-4
and thereby demonstrates its readiness to pay attention to the concerns
of regional states and the United States. In reality, Shahab-3 has
the characteristics and political importance of Shahab-4.
With a range of 1500 km it allows blackmailing the entire region, i.e.
the political purpose has been obtained.
Shahab-4 may not be created officially or the existing missile with
its characteristics will not be named so. There are scientific and
technical reasons. This family of missiles is not distinguished for
high precision and reliability. Perhaps, the Iranians need to upgrade
Shahab-3 to a certain level, which will require a lot of time (most
probably, 2-3 years), presenting technical issues as pacifism.
At the same time, depending on the foreign political situation, Iran
will create an intercontinental missile with a range of 2500 km. Iran
has more success in tactical missiles with a range of 150-200 km.
Missiles for navy were a particular success.
Recently Iran has launched works on the analogue of C-300 which
is still at the stage of designing. The goal has been set, and the
Iranians believe that they will achieve a similar solution, China
may have certain participation. The final decision on designing this
system was made after Russia refused to supply these systems. No
doubt, Iran has a historical lack of confidence in Russia. Iran has
given up cooperation with Russia in the defense and security spheres,
which used to exist quietly.
Iran does not give up and is using different means for filling the gaps
in the sphere of defense. In particular, Iran was shocked when Russia
refused to supply C-300 systems to it but send them to Azerbaijan.
Iran launched Fajir satellite on orbit with Safir launcher. It is
the fourth in Iran’s satellites and is equipped with GPS.
Iran’s political leadership intends to sell missiles at any price,
and it would be desirable to supply missiles to EU or NATO member
states, such as Greece, Albania, Cyprus, as well as Central Asia and
the Caucasus. It seems realistic for the part of Greece.
In December 2002 Iran received 15 warships from North Korea,
including 6 Peykaap fast patrol boats, 2 Tir fast attack boats,
5 Taedong submarines. Each of them is armed with 2 32 cm torpedoes.
In 2001-2002 Iran ordered 45 fast patrol boats, small submarines
and small class warships to North Korea which Iran has equipped
with missiles. The 38 ones received in 2002 are in the Caspian Sea,
including 29 fast boats.
In 2006 Iran created a diesel submarine which can launch ballistic
missiles. In 2011 Iran restructured its missile forces, standing
among the Western states by its level of development.
Iran has a dominant position in the Persian Gulf. Its navy has resolved
almost all the problems, including complete lift of blockade on the
gulf. Iran falls behind in air force but there are expectations from
cooperation with the United States and France, which is necessary to
fight such phenomena as the “Islamic State of Iraq and Levant”.
In 2003-2012 Iran’s defense industry leaped forward and resolved a
lot of complicated problems. All kinds of strategic and tactical
missiles have been created which can carry warheads of different
calibers and purpose.
While earlier the defense capability of Iran’s missiles was questions
by American and Russian experts, the latest tests and maneuvers have
left no room for doubts about the Iranian missiles.
Considering the advantages of Turkey and Saudi Arabia over Iran in
terms of air force, Iran’s missiles gain special importance and would
have a key role in any large-scale conflict.
Besides problems in the Persian Gulf problems occur in the Caspian Sea,
primarily relating to Azerbaijan. Iran is ready to strike Azerbaijan’s
key centers and forces, especially that all the issues relating to
location of forces and important communication hubs and airports have
been resolved.