WILL TURKEY GO TO WAR?
Hurriyet Daily News, Turkey
Feb 24 2015
by FATÄ°H CEKÄ°RGE
To answer this question, first we have to outline these facts:
A military operation was conducted to save our troops guarding the
Tomb of Suleyman Shah. Turkey took its sons overnight from where
they were under siege. By all measures, this is a very appropriate
political decision and a successful operation.
Syria’s mandatory objections and threats actually have no value.
What else would Turkey have done? Would it leave its troops on this
land under the siege of terror, where domestic clashes are ongoing
and where no state authority is left?
Of course not. Whatever it takes to be a state has been done. The
world has also found this operation to be justified.
As soon as the operation became known to the public, people were
asking, “Will Turkey be engaged in war?”
First of all, Syria is not in a position to even make a scenario for
a war. In other words, there will not be a war because of this.
However, there are more important and deeper issues than this, such
as the situation of Mosul and Kirkuk.
A U.S. Central Command official was speaking to reporters the other
day. He said, “An Iraqi and Kurdish military force of 20,000 to
25,000 troops is being prepared to recapture the city, probably in
April or May.”
These words trigger three important questions:
1) A war is in store in the months of April and May over Mosul and
Kirkuk, which are critically important for Turkey. What will Turkey’s
position be in this war?
2) For the Kurdish forces to conduct a joint operation with the
U.S., how will that affect the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and
the Democratic Union Party (PYD) in Syria? How will the possible
reflections from that war affect the peace process in Turkey and,
most importantly, the laying down of arms of the PKK?
3) What does the U.S. official’s referring to Iraqi and Kurdish forces
separately mean? Are Kurdish forces other than the PYD, the Peshmerga
and even the PKK, in question?
Indeed, these questions are also being asked to Ankara.
Election calendar
If we carry these questions to a further date, we will come to the
general elections in June. In other words, while Turkey is approaching
a general election, it is entering a highly critical period which
can also shape its domestic politics in a very sensitive region,
such as in Mosul and Kirkuk right across its borders.
To state the question more clearly: “While the PYD and the Peshmerga
in the north of Iraq and Syria are being armed by the U.S., will the
PKK, which defines itself as a force in the region, be willing to
lay down arms easily?”
This question must have a share in the close contact between Ankara
and Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani, because Ankara considers
any Kurdish forces other than Barzani’s to be illegal.
To be able to better analyze how critical the coming months are,
we should note that the peace process is a historic benchmark for
Turkish democracy. One leg of these talks is in Kandil. The indicator
of this is the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) delegations shuttling
between İmralı and Kandil. The laying down of arms of the PKK is the
most critical condition of the peace process, but these developments
across our borders are making this condition more difficult.
Well, this is the essential issue. Replies expected to come from
Kandil in the coming days will make this situation clearer.
Well, would Turkey go into a war over Mosul and Kirkuk? No, I
don’t think so. But this war would keep on going at our door, at
our threshold. Well, when did we have a peaceful door, anyway? The
Iran-Iraq war, the Israel-Syria war, the Azerbaijan-Armenia war, the
blood of the brothers we have been shedding domestically for 30 years,
Kardak, the continental shelf and Cyprus, the civil war in Syria and
1.5 million refugees in our country…
Look at this history and geography… It is full of bloodshed…
We are already in a war, our neck is bleeding…
February/24/2015