TURKEY WILL EMERGE AS MAJOR REGIONAL POWER, STRATFOR SAYS
March 6, 2015 10:37
Turkish tanks near the Syrian border
Photo: REUTERS
Yerevan /Mediamax/. By 2025, Turkey will emerge as the major regional
power, and Turkish-Iranian competition will increase as a result.
It is stated in the Decade Forecast published by Stratfor U.S.
analytics center on developments in the world within 2015-2025.
“We have entered a period in which the decline of the nation-states
created by Europe in North Africa and the Middle East is accelerating.
Power is no longer held by the state in many countries, having devolved
to armed factions that can neither defeat others nor be defeated. This
has initiated a period of intense internal fighting.
The United States is prepared to mitigate the situation with air
power and limited forces on the ground but will not be able or
willing to impose a settlement. Turkey, whose southern border is made
vulnerable by this fighting, will be slowly drawn into the fighting”,
the document reads.
“As the reality sinks in, it will emerge that, because of its location,
only one country has an overriding interest in stabilizing Syria
and Iraq, is able to act broadly — again because of its location —
and has the means to at least achieve limited success in the region.
That country is Turkey. At this point, Turkey is surrounded by
conflicts in the Arab world, in the Caucasus and in the Black Sea
Basin. Turkey will not be ready for a completely independent policy in
the Middle East and will pay the price for a U.S. relationship. That
price will open the path to extending the containment line to Georgia
and Azerbaijan”, noted the U.S. analysts.
“Whatever its reluctance, Turkey cannot withstand years of chaos
across its border, and there will be no other country to carry the
burden. Iran is not in a position geographically or militarily to
perform this function, nor is Saudi Arabia. Turkey is likely to try
to build shifting coalitions ultimately reaching into North Africa
to stabilize the situation. Turkish-Iranian competition will grow
with time, but Turkey will keep its options open to work with both
Iran and Saudi Arabia as needed. Whatever the dynamic, Turkey will
be at the center of it.
This will not be the only region drawing Turkey’s attention. As Russia
weakens, European influence will begin inching eastward into areas
where Turkey has historical interests, such as the northern shore of
the Black Sea. We can foresee Turkey projecting its power northward
certainly commercially and politically but also potentially in some
measured military way. Moreover, as the European Union fragments and
individual economies weaken or some nations become oriented toward
the East, Turkey will increase its presence in the Balkans as the
only remaining power able to do so.
Before this can happen, Turkey must find a domestic political balance.
It is both a secular and Muslim country. The current government has
attempted to bridge the gap, but in many ways it has tilted away
from the secularists, of whom there are many. A new government will
certainly emerge over the coming years. This is a permanent fault line
in contemporary Turkey. Like many countries, its power will expand in
the midst of political uncertainty. Alongside this internal political
conflict, the military, intelligence and diplomatic service will need
to evolve in size and function during the coming decade. That said,
we expect to see an acceleration of Turkey’s emergence as a major
regional power in the next 10 years”, Stratfor concludes.