ARMENIA LEFT OUT OF EEU

Naira Hayrumyan, Political Commentator
Comments – 10 March 2015, 15:49

The presidents of Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus Nursultan Nazarbayev,
Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko will have a three-party
meeting in Astana on March 13 and discuss economic cooperation and
international problems, the press service of the head of state of
Kazakhstan informed.

“The sides will discuss issues of deepening trade and economic
cooperation among the three countries. Besides, the presidents are
going to discuss the tendencies in the global economy, as well as
the situation in Ukraine,” the message holds.

This is a three-party meeting and formally it is not related to the
Eurasian Union, neither is the topic of the meeting. This arouses a
number of questions relating to the Eurasian Union, as well as the
membership of Armenia.

Putin, Nazarbayev and Lukashenko can, of course, hold trilateral,
or even bilateral meetings. However, since the creation of the
Eurasian Union, these meetings should logically take place within the
Eurasian Economic Union. And the fact that a three-party meeting is
going to discuss economic issues in a non-Eurasian context may imply
some tendencies.

First, it is not ruled out that the leaders of the “Eurasian troyka”
do not take the EEU seriously as a political organization and they
needed it to oppose the European Union. Economic issues are also dealt
with in a three-party format. In addition, the fourth member of the
Eurasian Economic Union Armenia has no shared borders and is not part
of the Eurasian space. Therefore, they have not invited Serzh Sargsyan.

Second, March 15 is the deadline of nomination of presidential
candidates in Kazakhstan, and Nazarbayev has most probably invited
Putin and Lukashenko to get their “approval” of his nomination or
his farewell (nomination of his successor).

Third, it is not ruled out that Serzh Sargsyan has been invited to
this meeting but he has refused for a certain reason. In order not
to highlight the absence of Sargsyan at the Eurasian table they have
decided to hold a three-party meeting.

The latter is the most interesting one. How have been the heads
of Eurasian member states getting on since January 2? Formally,
everything is fine but in reality there are no contacts among them,
at least official ones.

Moreover, in a week after the tragedy in Gyumri on January 12 Putin and
Sargsyan had a telephone conversation, it is not known whose initiative
it was. Two months have passed since the membership of Armenia to the
Eurasian Economic Union, and the leaders of Armenia and Russia have
not got synchronized. Exports to Russia have almost stopped. Moscow
has not explained why the EEU praised by him is only harming Armenia.

The dependence of Armenia’s domestic policy on Russia has also
changed. Over these two months Hovik Abrahamyan and Gagik Tsarukyan
have visited Moscow and their visits were a failure. Abrahamyan has
not been able to agree on the gas price, and after his return Gagik
Tsarukyan was shamefully overthrown from the Armenian Olymp. This
may mean that the “telephone” has broken down.

The impression is that the leaders of Armenia and Russia understand
that public demonstration of mutual dissatisfaction will tear the
Eurasian patchwork apart. For its part, it may result in unpredictable
consequences.

However, one day they will have to meet and talk.