AZERBAIJAN IS RUSSIA’S MILITARY BEACON

Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments – 13 March 2015, 16:27

The Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov announced in Moscow that
Russia is ready to negotiate over opening the Abkhazian railway but
the decision on the issue must be made by Sukhumi and Tbilisi.

If a reference is made to Tbilisi and Sukhumi regarding the final
decision, it means that these two sides must reach an agreement. And
it means that Tbilisi must recognize Abkhazia with some status,
reaching a decision on opening the railway together with that subject.

Considering that official Tbilisi does not recognize the independence
of Abkhazia and considers it part of Georgia and has not hinted so
far that any option of recognition will be acceptable in the nearest
future, it should be noted that Lavrov has actually announced that
it is impossible to open the Abkhazian railway.

The issue of opening of the Abkhazian railway has often featured news
headlines. After a long pause the issue was first brought up after
Ivanishvili came to government in Georgia. Tbilisi initiated this
discourse. Moreover, Ivanishvili even announced that the construction
of Kars-Akhalkalaki may be suspended because it does not meet Georgia’s
requirements for several reasons.

Ivanishvili was perceived as Russia’s candidate, his words about
opening the Abkhazian railway and statements on Kars-Akhalkalaki
were interpreted in the light of the Russian politics. However,
Ivanishvili visited Azerbaijan, and the issue of Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku
was resolved, and since then the Georgian government has not spoken
against it in any way. Instead, the issue of the Abkhazian railway
seems to have run into a deadlock.

Although, on the other hand, this issue had never run out of the
deadlock. It has simply been placed in news circulation and is
regularly refreshed for certain political objectives. Obviously,
the issue of Abkhazia’s status is a big and insurmountable obstacle
for official Tbilisi. In the long run, Armenia needs the Abkhazian
railway the most because Russia is the biggest market for the Armenian
products, and there is a need for reliable and cheap transport.

However, Armenia has very little chance to influence the process of
opening of the railway.

As to Russia, the Abkhazian railway connects with Iran and the
adjacent regions. However, the situation it rather sensitive here. It
is necessary to build an Armenia-Iran railway too. There are both
financial and political obstacles to this since the layout of the
Iran-Armenia railway will open up an additional chance for sovereignty
for Armenia, even if it takes place with Russia’s patronage.

Russia is facing a great risk of losing the struggle for regional
influence and is therefore not interested in spending money on regional
infrastructures which will not generate fast profits and are political
projects rather, such as the Iran-Armenia railway.

Moscow has a plan on Armenia – achieve fast and complete military
dominance over the Artsakh area. Moscow’s commercial hopes in the
region are related to Azerbaijan.