HOW TO SILENCE AZERBAIJAN

Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments – 20 March 2015, 15:57

As the Armenian side has three victims and four wounded soldiers in
the result of the fight against the Azerbaijani commando as the latter
attempted sabotage at the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, there come
more frequent calls to punish Azerbaijan to discourage it from such
actions in the future. We should do so to avoid victims in the future.

Incidentally, people who are saying these things are silent about
the supply of offensive arms to Azerbaijan by Russia worth 5 billion
dollars.

In the meantime, this fact has a key role in border sabotages. Russia
is considered Armenia’s strategic ally, a state which has assumed
security obligations to Armenia, leads CSTO, the military political
security alliance of Armenia. When this country supplies offensive
weapons worth 5 billion dollars to Armenia enemy Azerbaijan which
is a constant threat to Armenia, it is but outright assistance to
Azerbaijan.

According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, weapons
bought by Armenia in 2010-2014 make 4% of Azerbaijan’s armament. Over
this period Azerbaijan has bought 2.5 times more weapons. And its 85%
was the result of military and technical cooperation with Russia.

In other words, with Russia’s active participation the balance
between the conflict sides has been disrupted. It has been disrupted
significantly. It is possible that Armenia is not inferior to
Azerbaijan in terms of modern weapons but most part of this weapon
is de jure under Russian control, i.e. the Russian military base. And
Russia is not a conflict side. Moreover, Russia announces to observe
parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which further violates the
balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

This setting pushes Azerbaijan towards sabotages. Armenia is
objectively deprived of an opportunity to take steps that will force
Azerbaijan to give up military sabotages, reconnaissance war or slow
war, as the spokesman for the Ministry of Defense called the situation
at the border.

The burden of this situation is lying heavily on the Armenian armed
forces after 3 September 2013 when the responsibility of conducting
a state policy was delegated to Moscow’s imperialistic project called
the Eurasian Economic Union. Azerbaijan grew brazen after this u-turn
of Armenia, i.e. the start of the process of surrender of sovereignty
which culminated in de jure membership of Armenia to the EEU.

In military terms Armenia is trying its best. This does not mean that
the army cannot resolve bigger problems. However, this will inflict
greater problems with bigger losses, without resolving the problem of
silencing Azerbaijan. Without questioning the competency of the army
it would have been a big mistake to underestimate the correlation of
forces. The correlation is such that none of the sides can impose a
fast capitulation on the other.

This does not concern the preventive targeted strikes which is the
tactics adopted by Armenia. However, there is no doubt that Azerbaijan
has accepted and will accept this tactics as long as Aliyev avoids
responsibility for Azerbaijan’s losses at home.

At present, the armed forces of Armenia can resolve an optimal issue
in time and space – defend the territorial integrity of Armenia and
Artsakh, apparently, the last component of sovereignty left.

Armenia has a lot to do in the economic policy. In addition, a lot
that has to be done at this level is related to the army, namely
modernization of the army with full use of the engineering potential
of Armenia that would enable enhancing the individual security of
every soldier, which is an essential part of general security.

The key condition for silencing Azerbaijan is to restore Armenia
as a subject, which requires urgent reforms of internal life,
diversification of foreign economic and political relations, a new
level of partnership with the Euro-Atlantic system of security,
which will enable Armenia to restore the balance.