Andrey Yepifantsev: Russia and Armenia have what to keep silence about

ArmInfo’s interview with Andrey Yepifantsev, the head of the
Moscow-based analytical center Alte et Certe, regarding the latest
statement of the Armenian president on ‘arms policy’ of Moscow towards
Armenia and Azerbaijan.

by David Stepanyan
Saturday, March 21, 11:47

President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan has recently expressed his concern
over Russia selling arms to Azerbaijan. He spotlighted that “the
soldier on the border realizes that they try to destroy him with
Russian weapons.” It was for the first time that the president voiced
the issue the Armenian society has been concerned over for many years.
What do you think of all this?

Serzh Sargsyan has addressed rather flammable a topic of the
Russian-Armenian relations. This is a topic Armenia treats rather
radically and emotionally, while Russia approaches it more practically
and rationally. Some Armenian political scientists tried to explain
Russians in 2012-2013 that Armenia’s interests required rapprochement
with the West leaving Russia as the guarantor of its military security
and the biggest economic donor. Therefore Armenia was working towards
the Association Agreement with the EU and had no intention to join the
Russian-led Customs Union. Such option was normal and would meet
Armenia’s interests, but the reality has changed. In the current
situation, it appears to Armenia that Russia must more decisively
insist on Armenia’s positions in accordance with the strategic
alliance. Armenia expects Russia to stop selling weapons to
Azerbaijan, recognize Nagorny Karabakh and much more Armenia itself
cannot do. When Russia does not do it, Yerevan feels offended.”

How does Moscow see the situation?

In Moscow they perceive the situation with Russian arms supply to
Azerbaijan in a different way. In Russia they are sure that if Moscow
openly takes Armenia’s side, it will escalate the Karabakh conflict
and deprive Russia of the levers of influence on the conflict’s
management. Moscow reminds Armenia that Russia is a friend of Armenia,
but it is not an enemy of Azerbaijan either. After all, Azerbaijan is
neither North Korea nor Somali. Azerbaijan is not under the regime of
international sanctions and is free to buy any weapons, except the
mass proliferation weapons. If Baku buys no arms from Russia, it will
buy arms from other countries and, in this regard, no matter what
tanks the Azeri soldiers will use to destroy Armenian tanks in the
conflict zone. Strange though it may sound, if these tanks are
Russian and if Russia and Moscow have good relations, Russia will be
more involved in the conflict’s management and there will be less
chances that the sporadic fires and provocations may grow into a
large-scale war.

Do you mean that the financial side of the arms deals is of secondary
importance?

The financial side of the Russian weapons sale to Azerbaijan is
another important issue. Russia sells arms on market prices and gets
good proceeds from it. We understand that Armenia does not care
wherefrom Russia gets money to supply the Armenian army with advanced
weapons free of charge or on very low prices in accordance with the
Russian-Armenian Agreement of Military Cooperation. However, Russia
does care for it. To have a bread on the table, it is necessary to
earn money to buy it.

In other words, the preferential arms supply to Armenia certainly
depends also on Russia’s arms deals with Azerbaijan, doesn’t it?

It is not a secret that Russia earns money to arm the Armenian army
also from the sale of weapons in the word market, including to
Azerbaijan. To be clear, if Moscow stops doing it for emotional
reasons, it will get less incomes and will no longer be able to
produce and supply so much weapons to the Armenian army. Meanwhile,
Azerbaijan will continue buying arms from other countries. Will it
help anyone?

It turns out that there is no alternative to Moscow’s ‘arms policy’
towards Armenia and Azerbaijan…

We realize that Moscow’s stand is not perfect and is very complicate.
It is incredibly hard to be involved into the conflict between two
historically bellicose countries and to try to remain a friend for
both the parties. In many similar situations, England just stopped any
efforts and left the region. It is very costly for Moscow and triggers
criticism of Yerevan and Baku. However, Russia just can take no other
stand in the current state of affairs.

Any alternative will be worse, and for Armenia, first. In this light,
Armenia should leave emotions at the door and think soberly; be wiser
not louder. I understand that domestic emotions will not fade away,
but if there is sober mind, sometimes, it is better not to speak of
such issues in politics. Russia and Armenia are sisters. We have what
to keep silence about.

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