PUTIN’S CHOICE: ARMENIA SAYS RUSSIAN LEADER’S ABSENCE FROM YEREVAN ON APRIL 24 WOULD BE “INCOMPREHENSIBLE”

ANALYSIS | 23.03.15 | 10:53

Photo: photo

By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent

Late last week Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan made a very
significant statement that, according to some observers, may be the
beginning of major changes in the region.

Speaking about Armenian-Russian relations on France 24, a Paris-based
international news and current affairs television channel, the
Armenian leader said that if Russian President Vladimir Putin does
not arrive in Yerevan on April 24 – the day when Armenians will
mark the 100th anniversary of the Ottoman-era Genocide – it would be
“incomprehensible”.

“Russia has recognized the Genocide, we are strategic allies, and if
on April 24 the head of the Russian state is not with the Armenian
people that would be impossible to understand,” Sargsyan emphasized,
stressing that French President Francois Hollande has publicly
announced that he will take part the commemorative events in Yerevan.

“That is something very moving to us,” Sargsyan said, referring to
Hollande’s step.

Behind this statement is not just the indignation of Armenia over the
fact that it may turn out that the president of Russia – a strategic
ally of Armenia – will not come to Yerevan for the commemoration of the
100th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. Some analysts assume the
statement also contains a kind of threat – if Putin does not arrive in
Yerevan on April 24, Sargsyan may decide not to go to Moscow for May 9,
which is to be marked as the 70th anniversary of victory in the Great
Patriotic War. Putin is known to be seeking to turn Victory Day into a
triumph of his “imperial policy”. And Yerevan’s decision not to attend
the celebrations could certainly affect Armenian-Russian relations.

And there are reasons for doubts regarding Putin’s arrival on
April 24. After a telephone conversation between Putin and Sargsyan
earlier in March it was confirmed that Putin will visit Armenia,
but the Russian president’s spokesman later said that the date of the
visit has not yet been clarified. And it happened after Putin got a
telephone call from his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Media are full of “analytical” assumptions that Armenian-Russian
relations are thus on the verge of breaking. This is primarily due to
the fact that Russia is facing a choice between Turkey and Armenia, but
the atmosphere this time is such that unlike in the early 20th century
Moscow cannot betray the interests of Armenia in favor of Turkey.

Oddly enough, the Centennial of the Armenian Genocide has created
unique favorable conditions for Armenia to get out of Russian imperial
influence and fully integrate into the global politics and market. The
West, which has been pursuing a policy of ‘dual containment’ of Russia
and Turkey in recent years, is ready to defend Armenia. But for this
Yerevan needs the courage to set demands to Russia first.

Apparently, the Armenian government has started this process.

Answering a question from a Russian journalist during a major
international media forum in Yerevan last week, President Sargsyan
rather harshly accused Russia of supplying Azerbaijan with arms. In
doing so, he hinted that continued Russian arms deliveries to Armenia’s
military arch-foe may affect the Armenian-Russian relations.

Besides, on March 20, Sargsyan did not go to the Astana summit of
the big Eurasian “troika” – Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Still
before the summit Putin said that it is time to think about forming
a common Eurasian monetary union, but the Central Bank of Armenia
immediately replied that it did not consider such an option. As
a result, in Astana, it was stated that a monetary union could be
established only by three states – Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.

Russia’s Putin is really facing a difficult choice: his refusal to
come to Armenia for the April 24 commemorations would endanger the
future of Russian-Armenian relations and Russian continued dominance
in the Caucasus. His arrival in Yerevan on the day is fraught with
damaged relations with Turkey: in Yerevan on April 24 there are
obviously going to be demands for the Moscow (1920) and Kars (1921)
Russo-Turkish treaties to be ruptured as it was under those treaties
that after the genocide of the Armenian people Russia and Turkey
divided the Armenian lands between themselves.