INTERNET PRESS-CONFERENCE WITH ANALYST GORDON HAHN (USA)

[ Part 2.2: “Attached Text” ]

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On March 26 Internet press-conference for Armenian media with American
analyst, professor in several universities Gordon Hahn was held on
following topics: European and Eurasian integration processes and
security issues for the countries of our region; The current policy
of Russia in promotion of integration processes; Islamic extremism
in the post-Soviet countries and territories of Russia.

These “first-hand” comments Armenian journalists will publish in
their media outlets.

The internet press-conference with Gordon Hahn was organized within the
project “Topical Dialogues on the New Integration Agenda of Armenia”
of the “Region” Research Center supported by U.S. Embassy Public
Affairs Section.

David Stepanyan,

– Recently, the relations between the Europe, the USA and Iran
are gradually expanding the geopolitical functions mandated to this
regional superpower in the Greater Near East. Is it possible to foresee
a more significant role played by Iran in South Caucasus, considering
that such aspirations have multiply been voiced by Iranians, at least,
in expert circles?

Answer – It is true that Iran, including its Revolutionary Guards,
is being allowed to play a leading role in the battle against ISIL
in Iraq and that this could give Teheran a foothold in Mesopotamia
in might seek to expand and retain, increasing its power in the
region. Moreover, the nascent deal on Iran’s nuclear program could
relieve the burden of sanctions and allow Iran to develop both a civil
and military nuclear program while being able to export oil. In this
way, Iran’s economic and political power will be enhanced. This said,
I do not think Iran is focused all that much on Azerbaijan, having
more important fish to fry in the Middle east, Iraq, and Israel.

– The list of Azerbaijani public officials deprived of the right to
enter Western countries was the reaction of the West to the closer
relations between Moscow and Baku, by the way not only within the
multibillion arms sale deals, but also energy projects, including those
Rosneft is involved in. In its turn, the US has expressed readiness to
develop its relations with Armenia not only in the economy, but also
the defense. And this is regardless of the presence of Russian Military
Base 102 in Gyumri. Can we have new tendencies in the geopolitics of
the West and Russia in South Caucasus against this background?

Answer – It is possible that if the new ‘cold war’ continues to
escalate that Russian-Western competition in the Southern Caucasus
will intensify. This is already happening with NATO’s plan to expand
its ‘Atlantic Resolve’ military exercises to Georgia and the nearby
Black Sea region. In addition, the pipeline wars are likely only
to intensify as problems between Ukraine and Russia persist and the
EU seeks to end its dependence on Russian energy supplies. Russia’s
Turkey Stream project also signals that the South Caucasus is likely
to become a more coveted energy transit route. Russia’s successful
courting of Armenia to join the EEU is another sign of the region’s
growing geopolitization. The US is therefore likely to pay greater
attention to Baku as a counter to the Russian-Armenian axis.

– Has the Ukrainian crisis strengthened or weakened the positions
of this or that superpower in South Caucasus? In particular, do you
think the Ukrainian crisis has somehow readjusted the positions held
by the USA, Russia, and the EU in the region?

Answer – Much will depend on the outcome of the crisis. The destruction
and economic dislocation created by a crisis could serve as a lesson to
Azerbaijan and Armenia not to rely on the West because of the negative
reaction sure to come from Moscow. Moscow’s greater interests in
the region and greater willingness to protect those interests is
insurmountable as long as Europe refuses to expand to the region
and the US remains too distant from the region and preoccupied with
other issues to devote the resources necessary to challenge Russian
dominance there.

– The establishment of an actual customs point on the border between
Russia and Belarus has once again revealed the setbacks of the EEU
and the gap between the real politics and the integration projects
implemented by Moscow. Can we state today that the Eurasian integration
is still as topical as before and does this serve as a foundation
for the Russian aspiration for a bipolar world?

Answer – The customs posts are the consequence of Lukashenko’s policy
of embracing Moscow but maintaining a wandering eye on the other girls
in the neighborhood to keep his options open. Because of geography,
Belarus, like the other European former Soviet republics, is in some
ways more torn between Europe and Russian than are the other former
Soviet republics, and it tries to play both sides of the fence as
a result. I would not regard the EEU as an Eurasian integration
project to be a failure, unrealistic, or neo-imperial. Russia seeks
to consolidate a sphere of influence, security and markets near
its borders. This is normal for a great power, and it is likely to
succeed to some extent over time, as long as it is patient, develops
its own economy so it is an attractive partner, and limits the military
component of its foreign policy in the region.

Anahit Danielyan,

Against the background of European and Eurasian integration processes
and the security issues deriving from those, how probable do you
think the following are:

1. The peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict and in what way?

2. The international recognition of Nagorno Karabakh?

Answer – Unless Yerevan and Baku can come to terms on their own,
then with Russia’s close ties to Armenia long-standing and now
further consolidated under the EEU, there are only two options:
(1) continued conflict driven by the parties themselves and/or
by competition between Russia and the West with the latter taking
Azerbaijan’s side to counter the Russian-Armenian alliance or (2)
a resolution of the conflict sponsored and guaranteed by Russia.

Artak Barseghyan, Public Radio of Armenia,

– Mr. Hahn, do you think that the escalation of tension between Russia
and the West may lead to a confrontation and a new global war?

Answer – This is increasingly possible but remains more unlikely than
likely at the present moment. The military escalation in the form of
intensifying and expanding maneuvers between NATO and Russia marks
a new phase in the conflict. The West remains unwilling to recognize
Russia’s sphere of influence, so Moscow has decided to enforce it –
to make it a reality. If the West and NATO are as intent on denying
Russia this sphere of influence as Moscow is intent on securing it,
then war is a distinct possibility. If the Ukrainian war heats up
again, then Washington is likely to begin sending lethal military
equipment, which will prompt a harsh reaction from Moscow – likely to
be Russian troops’ full intervention in the Donbass and an offensive
to push Ukrainian forces beyond the borders of Luhansk and Donetsk
Oblasts and perhaps a drive to secure a land bridge to Crimea.

– What prospects for the Karabkh conflict resolution do you see in
the conditions of a continuous escalation, provoked by the Azerbaijani
party?

Answer –

– How interested is the US in the normalization of the Armenian
and Turkish relations, and is Washington ready to put the necessary
pressure on Ankara to make it recognize the Armenian Genocide and open
of the Armenian and Turkish border that has been closed since 1993.

Answer – The US has a full plate and is not very interested.

Washington’s policy of emphasizing human rights and democracy to
one extent or another is an obstacle to close relations with Baku,
but that could change under a Republican administration after Obama.

The ,,Hetq,, newspaper,

– How do you think the EU (Association membership) and EEU integration
of the countries in the so-called post-Soviet space will be reflected
on their security priorities and the security of Russia?

Answer – Unfortunately, the failure of the EU and Russia to negotiate
over Ukraine’s relationship with the EU and EEU – despite the divided
preferences inside Ukraine that remain to this day according to a
recent opinion survey – has led to a security crisis reflected in
Moscow’s withdrawal from the CFE treaty and recent trial balloons
regarding a European army. Washington will be pressuring NATO
member countries to comply with the 2% of GDP minimum for defense
expenditures, likely making a European army an overly expensive
luxury. The EU is forced to follow NATO which will be stepping up
its pressure on Russia, leaving Europe between two flames. Moscow
is likely to push gradually for the further militarization of SCO, a
more robust CSTO military potential, and semi-militarization of BRICS.

– In which regions (South Caucasus, Near East?) and in what issues of
international politics do the interests of the EU, USA, and Russia
coincide today, and how much are the parties able to build their
relations in a differentiate manner? Is the ISIL among the issues
that may unite the efforts of the conflicting parties – Russia and
the Western countries, including the USA?

Answer – I have repeatedly recommended that cooperation become the
cornerstone for trust-building in Russian-West relations in times of
tension. After all, despite the horrors of Stalin, we were able to
cooperate with the USSR against Nazi Germany. ISIL and AQ are no less
a potential problem, and Putin’s Russia is far better than Stalin’s
USSR. Unfortunately, the ubiquity and instantaneity of communications
keeps tensions higher than they should be. So has Ukraine. ISIL and
AQ are threats to the US, EU and Russia, so there is no reason not
to work together, and this threat is actually a good reason not be
fighting over Ukraine.

– Do you think the sanctions war between Russia and the USA
strategically justified? What can be a factor contributing to winding
down this war?

Answer – The West needs to impress upon Kiev that no economic
assistance will be forthcoming should the war be renewed and impress
upon Moscow that should it or its Donbass allies be the party that
renews the war, sanctions will increase multifold and NATO will beef
up its forces even further in eastern Europe. The West should offer
to agree to and help secure Ukraine’s non-bloc status, if Moscow
helps secure fulfillment of the Minsk II agreements.

Tatevik Ghazaryan,

– Mr. Hahn, from your point of view, do the United States of America
consider Russia a threat to its national interests and security taking
into account the crisis in Ukraine and the deteriorating relations
between the two former polars of the “cold war”?

Answer – Unfortunately, yes the US does now see Russia as a
threat. However, it fails to understand that it created this threat
by seeking to expand NATO to Russia’s borders, including Georgia and
especially Ukraine.

– How would you assess the perspectives of a new integration
organization – Eurasian Economic Union of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan
as well as Armenia, since January 2015?

Answer – I believe there is real geographic (proximity), political
(similar systems and political cultures), and economic logic for the
formation of a regional economic association in the former USSR. This
is the practice in every other region of the world.

Each country has reasons to join, but Russia’;s is ot any desire to
recreate the USSR or be a new ‘Third Rome.’

– Do you think that the international society, that is the OSCE Minsk
Group co-chairing countries and the United States in particular,
make their best efforts and really have a political will to reach the
peaceful resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (taking into
consideration the recent announcement by U.S Assistant Secretary
of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland on the
need of an “humanitarian gesture” by the Armenian side concerning
the Azerbaijani diversants who killed a 16-year-old boy in
Nagorno-Karabakh)?

Answer –

Araks Martirosyan, The ,,168 hours,, newspaper,

– We are currently at the most dangerous point since the signature
of the ceasefire that ended the worst fighting between Armenian
and Azerbaijani forces twenty years ago. We can understand that
disagreements between Azerbaijan and Armenia continue, because sides
cannot reduce tensions. How can the West reduce Russia’s influence
on Armenia and Azerbaijan which, for many international experts, is
worrying? Many experts insist that Russia inflames tensions between
the conflicting sides to punish the West for the conflict in Ukraine,
and for the sanctions.

Answer – I do not believe Russia has an interest in inflaming the
conflict. The conflict is largely local and built on interethnic
distrust between Baku and Yerevan and the legacy of Soviet
state-building.

– Armenia has chosen to be a part of Eurasian economic union because
Armenia is dependent from Russia in security sphere. Can the West
give security guarantees to Armenia if needed?

Answer – This is unlikely. The US has enough problems on its plate,
and Yerevan appears to have made its choice in favor of Moscow as
a protector.

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