ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ARMENIA TO COME CLOSE TO ZERO IN 2015 – IMF
YEREVAN, April 8. /ARKA/. Economic growth in Armenia will come close
to zero in 2015, but slight fluctuations are probable, Mark Horton,
chief of IMF Mission in Armenia, said on Wednesday.
He told journalists that the International Monetary Fund’s outlook
was by far higher just six months ago, but it was downed because of
the expected two-to-three-percent decline in Russia’s economy in 2015.
Horton pointed out that the inflow of money transfers from abroad has
dwindled by 35-40%, Armenian exports have also shrunk, especially
to Russia, and copper prices have dropped giving grounds for lower
outlook as well.
He also said that interest rates on foreign financing are relatively
high because of geopolitical risks, and today it became more difficult
to attract financial resources than, for example, one year ago,
and this is another factor impacting the forecast.
Among other factors, he singled out devaluation of the Armenian
national currency, which sank by the end of 2014 to 480 drams per one
dollar from 410 drams in the middle of that year damaging borrowers,
driving interest rates up and cutting the lending.
There were no such pessimistic economic growth outlooks in Armenia
in the past few years, he said adding at the same time that things
will stabilize a little, since some smoothing of adverse factors that
affected the economy is still seen.
These factors are the falling oil prices and economic activity in
Russia that recently stabilized a little.
Horton finds it still premature to speak about recovery, but he thinks
the situation will remain unchanged for some period of time.
In the government budget for 2015, GDP is projected at 4.1% and
inflation at 4% (±1.5%).
Many international financial organizations lowered their outlooks
for economic growth in Armenia in 2015.
According to the latest reports, the World Bank predicts 0.8% economic
growth, the Eurasian Development Bank forecasts 3.8%, the European
Bank for Reconstruction and Development expects stagnation and Asian
Development Bank a 1.6% growth.
Fitch agency expects a mild recession triggered by deterioration in
things in Russia and Moody’s forecasts a 2.3% growth.
The Central Bank of Armenia says economic growth in Armenia will
stand between 0.4% and 2% in 2015.
According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia, economic
growth in the country was recorded at 3.4% in 2014 instead of the
projected 5.2%. –0—–
From: A. Papazian