ARMENIA TO EXPERIENCE WEST’S BOYCOTT AND BLACKMAIL
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments – 20 April 2015, 13:16
To begin with, Russia intends to supply S 300 missiles to Iran. Hence,
Russia let Israel down and upset their relations despite the latter’s
pro-Russian stance on Ukraine and Crimea.
Israel needs Russia and it is seen as an important vital space,
market, trade partner. However, Israel could do without Russia and
has proved this for several decades.
In Russia they realize what attitude Israel will have to this because
S 300 is invincible for modern military technology though Israel and
the United States can create something new to overcome these systems,
thereby reducing their value and importance.
At any rate, the relations with Israel are not the same, and soon
Israel may become involved in anti-Russian sanctions, including with
the help of the world Jewish financial community.
Although Iran intends to buy S 300 systems, it has become convinced
that modern Russia cannot be a partner by nature. Iran is playing a
game with the West, and very few understand the goals and objectives
of the game. This game is an elite game, of course, and Russia is
left out for being an unreliable partner.
Iran has not managed to improve its relations with the United States,
and this already borders on the interests of Russia, primarily in the
southern direction and in the Near East where only memories are left
from Russia’s positions.
Presently, the Europeans are trying to scare the Americans that
Russia’s positions in the Near East have become stronger, which is
just a bluff. At the same time, one can claim referring to Iran’s
example that Russia’s weakening will not affect Iran’s positions and
may even benefit its interests.
Iran will never forget the A. Gore – Chernomyrdin act of “letting
down”, as well as the recent ban on weapon supply.
The members of CSTO and the Eurasian Union proved to be Russia’s more
predictable and unreliable partners who are waiting for an opportunity
to get out of that marginality.
It seems that Russia keeps the situation in the post-Soviet space under
control and is able to stake a lot. However, first it turned out that
Russia cannot control even Armenia where the government is asking
itself questions about the outcome of membership to the Eurasian Union.
How to support the vassals when there is no money, no wish, no
people-to-people relations? Before rushing to new regions it is
necessary to have reliable partners which are increasingly behaving
as victims or consumers…
No military and political bloc can emerge in this space, otherwise why
would the USSR collapse so consistently? The parts of the USSR cannot
bear one another at best. Perhaps, in the modern world only alignment
with NATO can coordinate their cooperation in the security sphere.
With a view to this, there is no doubt that the post-Soviet space is
facing serious threats, first of all, from Russia’s side. Although,
only Armenia has appeared in a situation when it will soon experience
the boycott and blackmail by the West which was “indulgent” for a while
but has arrived at the conclusion that it is useless and meaningless
because Armenia has not found the groups which would understand the
signals appropriately and would respond accordingly.
The policy of the United States and NATO are aimed at preventing
Russia from even localized enlargement in the neighboring regions,
and for a long time it was done without clear plans and purposes. Now
in the territories which Russia considers its “area of interest” the
West will initiate unmotivated reactions to keep Russia away from
the capacity of responding to farther regions. Presently, focus is
on Ukraine but as soon as its formatting as a military and political
partner is complete, the time of new objectives will come, first of
all in Central Asia.
Armenia has lost hope for the West’s support and assistance in the
spheres of defense and security. Armenia is left up to Russia and
Russia is not happy with this new role but it is trying to resolve
all the problems through eliminating them at the cost of the interests
of Armenia.
The West takes interest in the process of Turkey’s marginalization.
The West has realized that the old games with Turkey are meaningless
and has resorted to a well-planned step – the unification of efforts
of Russia and Turkey for them to act together in certain directions.
In other words, the union of two big marginal states with similar
social and economic models and classification among “developing”
countries will lead to strong grouping, mobilization, counteraction
to regional expansion. This may be a strange formulation but the West
needs a strong rival to explain strengthening of its own defense. The
fundamental Islamic movements cannot catch up. Marginal states with
strong armies and nuclear potential are needed.
For the time being, despite multiple issues, it turns out that Russia
cannot understand its external issues, ending up in confusion and
uncertainty. In reality, the problems are many but we referred to
only several game situations, and Russia has not figured out solutions
and ways out.