The past summer was significant from the point of view of regional developments, says Ara Papian, Head of the Modus Vivendi Center. He considers the current conditions in the region are most favorable for Armenia, but doubts we’ll be able to draw benefits.
“What’s happening in the region today is advantageous to Armenia,” Papian told a press conference today. Among the benefits Papian noted the situation in Turkey (with the Kurdish movement and the perspective of creation of a new state), the elimination of sanctions against Iran and its access to the international market.
“Leaving aside the joint programs Armenia and Iran can implement in the future, the decreased oil prices are already favorable. Azerbaijan will be finally smashed, if the price per barrel goes below $20.  “Less money, less weapons,” Ara Papian said. He also predicted serious economic and political problems for the neighboring country.
Along with the decreased oil revenues, Azerbaijan is aware that it has time until yearend to solve issues by force, the expert said, adding, however, that resumption of war is unlikely.
“Azerbaijan is almost confident it won’t succeed, while the losses may exceed the expectations,” he said.
“We have a favorable geopolitical situation, one that Armenia has not seen for decades, but my concern is that we’re not going to draw benefits from it due to domestic political issues and because we are not ready,” Papian concluded.
Papian soothed all those worried about the activity of the Islamic State. “ISIS will hardly reach the borders of Armenia. There are a number of interested states and nations along that route struggling against the group.”