“The Karabakh talks suffered after Ramil Safarov’s extradition, when it became clear Azerbaijan is not an adequate partner,” says Karen Vrtanesyan, coordinator of Razm.info military-analytical website. At a meeting with reporters the expert referred to the recent escalation at the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and the reasons behind it.

“By escalating tensions at the border, Azerbaijan pursues one goal – to grab concessions from Armenia through psychological pressure on the Armenian public,” Vrtanesyan told a press conference today.

The expert said the policy leads to a “deadlock.” “Azerbiaijan only suffers losses, while the Armenian side is not going to make concessions under the pressure of provocations,” he said.

Karen Vrtanesyan rules out the view that Azerbaijan is inciting war through border tension. According to him, Azerbaijan is afraid of war, primarily for economic reasons. “The Aliyev clan cannot be happy about the perspective of losing the successful oil business.”

Under Article 4 of the CSTO Treaty, “If an aggression is committed against one of the States Parties by any state or a group of states, it will be considered as an aggression against all the States Parties to this Treaty.” The organization never interferes with the developments at the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, although Armenia is one of its founding members and has been in a military alliance with the member states since May 15, 1992.

“We see no need to apply to CSTO. We have been successfully fulfilling our tasks by now,” Karen Vrtanesyan said.

The expert believes that for more effective control and objective assessment of the border situation, the monitoring missions should be replaced by smaller and more flexible groups that will even keep watch over the frontline villages to react to any assault against the peaceful population on the ground.