ARMINFO News Agency, Armenia
 Monday


View from Moscow: Only the threat of counteroffensive can curb the
aggressiveness of Baku

 Yerevan May 22

David Stepanyan. Counteroffensive, the threat of an offensive is the
only panacea capable of curbing the aggressiveness of the leadership
of Azerbaijan. Caucasus Department of the Institute of CIS countries
Deputy Director, military expert Vladimir Yevseyev, expressed this
opinion to ArmInfo.

"It is very important to keep the conflict from moving to another
stage. Today, I see a change in the quality of the conflict. In
February, the Azerbaijani reconnaissance by demining sappers or remote
robots tried to infiltrate deep into the Armenian territory, then at
that time it looked quite typical. However, striking through the UAV
the depth of the territory controlled by the NKR Defense Army, damage
to anti-aircraft missile system "Osa" - is actually the act of
aggression blow was obviously caused in the rear, as the air defense
systems nobody puts at the forefront and that talks about moving into
a new phase of the conflict course, the Defense Forces and also forced
by the UAV hit back at Azerbaijan's rear", he said.

The strikes on the rear, with the help of technical means, the
military expert regards as an entirely different level of conflict.
Thus, the destruction of air defense weapons can be regarded as the
first step of reconnaissance by combat with the aim of organizing its
aviation support using helicopters, as it was in April and the same
UAVs. And if the Azeris managed to inflict more damage as a result of
more concerted actions, then immediately a force of approximately a
battalion could follow reconnaissance.

"In the end, we could get events very close to the events of April
2016. That is why I am very worried about the qualitative change in
the situation in the conflict region, I was sure that the April war
will happen for six months and spoke about it at the celebration of
Artsakh Days in Moscow, on the basis of a host of indirect indicators,
unfortunately, I see such indirect signs in favor of the repetition of
April 2016 now too," the expert notes.

Stressing the restoration of the balance of power, Yevseyev noted that
the desire to continue the policy of Ilham Aliyev "Biting off the
territories" is too great. And in the case of his implementation of
the resumption of hostilities at the level of April will be
inevitable. According to his estimates, in Baku they are not
considered with any sacrifices. For example, the carefully concealed
death of 10 Azerbaijani servicemen as a result of the February
sabotage did not serve as a basis for restraining their own appetites.

"Unfortunately, I do not see any possibility of achieving real peace
agreements, there are simply no conditions for that. Now Azerbaijan is
not set to talking about compromises. And only the force can bring
Baku in adequate state. Only after that it will be real to talk to
Ilham Aliyev. Therefore, Armenian side should seriously prepare for
it, periodically clearly warning the enemy of retaliatory
counteroffensive. Talks on defense are unable to stop the aggressor,
it can do only the treat of striking back", the Russian expert summed
up.