By Rashid Shirinov

Armenia and Azerbaijan – the two parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are closer to war than at any point since a ceasefire brokered more than 20 years ago, the International Crisis Group said.

For over two decades the two South Caucasus countries have been locked in conflict, which emerged over Armenian territorial claims. Since the 1990s war, Armenian armed forces have occupied over 20 percent of Azerbaijan's internationally recognized territory, including Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent regions. 

The clashes over control of Nagorno-Karabakh have intensified in the past three years and turned into a violent flare-up of the conflict last April.

The reports said any descent into all-out war could draw in regional powers, which include Russia and Turkey – closely allied to Armenia and Azerbaijan respectively.

 “Since mid-January 2017, deadly incidents involving the use of heavy artillery and anti-tank weapons have occurred with varying degrees of intensity; May saw a significant increase, including reports of self-guided rockets and missiles used near densely populated areas along the line of contact,” the report notes.

Not a day goes by without Armenia’s ceasefire breaking and provocations with the use of large-caliber machine guns, mortars and other weapons. The Armenian side constantly shells Azerbaijani settlements located in the frontline regions, thus threatening the lives of peaceful Azerbaijani citizens living there.

Although the OSCE Minsk Group, chaired by Paris, Moscow and Washington, is working to find a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for over two decades, its activities have brought no breakthrough results so far, and ICG analysts also note this.

“Efforts to ensure a lasting settlement of the conflict in the South Caucasus, which is crossed by oil and gas pipelines, failed, despite the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group,” the ICG stated.

The ICG, which prepared its report based on the insights of analysts who spoke to residents and observers on the ground, noted in its report that the settlement process has stalled, and both sides appear ready for confrontation.

“A year after Nagorno-Karabakh’s April 2016 violent flare-up, Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer to war than at any point since the 1994 ceasefire,” the report notes. “While violence remains at a relatively low boil, any escalation quickly could spin out of control.”

Since the meetings of Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents in Vienna and St. Petersburg, which took place after the April 2016 clashes, the negotiation process came to the dead end due to the denial of Yerevan to continue serious talks.

Baku has repeatedly voiced readiness to settle the conflict through direct negotiations with Armenia with the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. However, the Armenian side is constantly trying to make up reasons to avoid a constructive dialogue and preserve the status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The ICG report also suggested that Russia remains the most influential foreign player, but noted that the country’s role is complex: “Russia is a co-chair in the Minsk Group, but also chief arms supplier to Azerbaijan and Armenia, both of whom suspect Russia is more interested in expanding its influence in the region than in resolving the conflict.”

The report also stated that Azerbaijan – frustrated with the longstanding status quo and concerned that additional security measures could further cement it – insists that substantive discussions cannot be delayed.

Earlier, Daniel Coats, the Director of U.S. National Intelligence stated that potential for large-scale hostilities in Karabakh will remain in 2017.