“Armenia will sooner or later join NATO,” says Davit Shahnazaryan, Senior Analyst at Regional Studies Center. He adds that the regional processes lead to membership, “In current geopolitical instable situation, the question of withdrawing from the CSTO or the Eurasian Union is out of question. But NATO is expanding, moreover NATO isn’t expanding itself, but the neighboring countries of NATO lead a policy so that NATO expands.”
The political expert notes that Turkey is already a member of NATO, and Georgia is directly moving towards NATO. Armenia simply has no alternative, “I don’t think that the CIS has chances to expand, vice versa, it seems that we have no partners in the CIS, except legally established partner- Russia. CIS is a club of countries having relations with Russia.”
Mr Shahnazryan cannot predict when Armenia will join NATO. Boris Navasardyan, Head of Yerevan Press Club, has difficulty even in predicting whether Armenia’s membership is possible or not, “I am not Vanga, anyway.”
The current developments in the region, according to Mr Navasardyan, make the predictions on Armenia’s possible membership even more difficult. But in all cases Armenia is attractive for NATO at least as a threat, “For NATO any region, which has a border or is close to NATO member states, is a potential threat or a country, nation, territory having a solution to potential security issue, and Armenia is not an exception, taking into account that there is fire very close to us and at any moment Armenia’s role may be important.”
Armenia can use NATO as a platform for discussing concerning issues, says William Lahue, NATO representative in the South Caucasus, “Every time, when Armenia goes to NATO, it speaks of Karabakh, Azerbaijan and Turkey and tries to convince member states of the alliance of Armenia’s viewpoints. Consequently it is an important platform for Armenia.”
By the way, touching upon the participation of servicemen from NATO member state Turkey in April War in support of Azerbaijan, representative of NATO Magnus Eyjolfsson noted that everything which NATO 29 member states do within the frames of independent politics, isn’t business of NATO.