International pressures alone are not enough to hold back Azerbaijan from provoking further aggression against Nagorno-Karabakh, a Russian political analyst has said, commenting on the recent developments in the zone of conflict.

Speaking to Tert.am, Alexander Skakov, a coordinator for the Caucasus Studies Center (adjunct to the Russian Academy of Sciences), also addressed the international mediators' scheduled trip to the region. “It is really good that the three [French, Russian and US] co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group are visiting the region, but we should not pin great hopes on the trip,” he said.

Meantime, the expert ruled out any possibility of progress in the peace talks in the visible future. “It will be possible only due to implementing the agreements reached in Vienna – after video surveillance devices are deployed along the Line of Contact and a permanent monitoring is conducted. Otherwise, we should not expect progress in terms of regional monitoring,” he added.  

Asked to comment on Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s statement that “the sides have agreed on the conflict settlement principles, but there still are sensitive and at the same time important points”, Skakov said he thinks that the Russian official meant the monitoring mechanisms “while dropping hints for enforcing pressure against the sides” (to make them abide by the arrangements reached).

“Understandably, Armenia and Azerbaijan are not ready for mutual concessions. Moreover, Azerbaijan is not ready to implement the deal agreed verbally, i.e. – expand the monitoring group responsible for deploying the video surveillance devices. What Azerbaijan is doing is trying to test the international community, Armenia and the Minsk Group by violating the ceasefire and demanding the extradition of Belarusian blogger Alexander Lapshin and, also recently, the blogger from Tbilisi,” he added.

“It is important for all the sides to exercise pressure – simultaneously, incessantly and periodically. Russia, Brussels and Washington should take a simultaneous action,” he said, agreeing that the Russian pressures often fall short of restraining Azerbaijan.