Aravot, Armenia

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Studies Center and Konrad Adenauer Foundation have organized a seminar for the journalists of Armenia in the frameworks of “NATO as a stabilizing power in South Caucasus: current challenges and progresses in the region” with the assistance of NATO Public Diplomacy Division.

 

“In the case of Georgia, the question is not “yes” or “no”, but “when”

 

 If NATO member country has decided to attack NATO non-member country, it is not the issue of NATO member states, it is the issue of the foreign policy of the two countries”, mentioned William Lahue – Head of the NATO Liaison Office in Georgia/ NATO Liaison Officer in South Caucasus, he spoke about Armenia-NATO cooperation: “All countries in North-Atlantic Alliance have pledged to withdraw from conflicts by peaceful means and if any ally has a military issue with his neighbor, then he actually appears under a rather big pressure by other member countries not in the sense that NATO Headquarters says – what do you do? But it is the other member countries that make requirements to that country in their bilateral relations for it to cease the actions.”

 

“Georgia is NATO’s very specific partner, he has unprecedented relations with the institution”, noted Mr. Lahue, highlighting Georgia-NATO cooperation pack as a very important one, through which they support Georgia in making reforms and in preparing for the membership. ““Yes” or “no” is not a question, but “when” is the question. There are a lot of things to do, of course, and the member countries strictly follow the developments in Georgia. The allies, assuredly, take into consideration how the influence can be, therefore they definitely weigh up before giving a membership invitation to countries. In the case of Georgia, the first problem was whether Georgia had made those calculations by itself.  For NATO it is important that no third country bears the unfavorable effect because of a decision made by this alliance. It is also very important to remember that the country’s joining the alliance does not change the power balance, it does not presuppose troop increase and military base establishment. If Georgia becomes NATO member, it does not mean that the next day changes will take place and military presence will be in place. Surely, Georgia’s status will change, that is – Georgia will enter under the protection of the Article 5 itself, which means that Georgia will no more have concerns about Russian threat. And Russia on its part, will think twice before starting actions against Georgia, that is, when Georgia becomes NATO member that threat will disappear”, explained William Lahue.

 

“This was an important decision both for Baltic states and Georgia, it gives them freedom and that freedom actually is provided by a defense umbrella, opens their hands for political and economic decisions. This has a fundamental negative influence on Russia forasmuch as it makes them think what they have suggested to their neighbors for them to make such decisions as to derive from the interest of the Russian Federation. We use economic, political motivating suggestions, but the RF is not ready for that, is not ready to give anything, Russia wants to put pressure and threaten until it gets what it wants. It is natural that changes might occur in the countries neighboring Georgia, in Armenia as well. For example, it is possible for Russia to wish to strengthen its military presence. Therefore, you should be ready to give a question to the government of the Republic of Armenia – whether the government will accept the enlargement of Russian military force in here. In that case, everything will already depend on the inner decisions of the country”, noted the speaker.

 

Which is NATO’s power?

 

Why did the USSR collapse and why does NATO continue to exist? As stated by William Lahue, the answer is simple, because its members want it to exist, though they can leave the alliance at any time they want, it provides them with an important political platform, except for being a defense umbrella. “We often hear from Russia that NATO is the instrument of the US policy… certainly, it is true, yes, NATO is an instrument, but it is also an instrument of German, French, Italian and British foreign policies and it is an instrument of all the members’ policies. This is sometimes difficult for Moscow to understand. There is no voting in NATO. The great allies do not have an advantage in the institution and there is no such thing that if they want something they get it and the small countries are pressed. This is the power of this institution because every nation has a complete sovereignty and there is a complete guarantee that if a country does not agree with any decision of NATO, then NATO cannot implement it, this simultaneously makes the decision-making process in the institution difficult.”

 

Mr. Lahue explained that the member states, as well as Armenia and Azerbaijan, use NATO for political issues. “For Georgia, NATO means a guarantee of sovereignty, and for NATO policy is the following – we believe our security and stability is enhanced and that peace and stability of the North-Atlantic space is enhanced by having more members, because once you are in NATO, you are a decision maker, a benefactor for the alliance, as well as a contributor to the alliance. So, the alliance becomes an important political tool for you, and this helps to ensure transparency and security between the members. You will notice that there has been no major war in Europe since NATO is founded following the World War II, because the member states pledge to resolve the issues peacefully. So, Russia’s presentation of the alliance as somehow this is a hostile, enemy force, poison on their border, threatening Russia, does not correspond to the reality, because for NATO to take military action against a state, all 29 countries should come to a consensus. What kind of circumstance would make all these 29 countries suddenly agree to attack another country? It is a fantasy scenario. That is not to say individual allies, it is possible for them to make a decision by themselves, without taking permission from NATO, because NATO cannot say what to do or what not to do. This is frequently a question I get regarding Turkey and Turkey’s role with his neighbors, NATO as an institution cannot put pressure on Turkey, the other allies can, and not solely regarding this issue, but, for example, regarding a lot of other issues – regarding the defense of human rights and democracy”, told Mr. Lahue, at the same time bringing another example, when Turkey wanted to buy air defense systems from China, NATO member states prevented it, because they could not agree on the accession of Chinese air defense systems into NATO’s integrated systems, because they would become defenseless against the possible actions of Chinese hackers, therefore, Turkey had to refuse. “Now Turkey negotiates with Russia to acquire air defense systems. Let them get it, it is their business, but Turkey cannot annex that system to the air defense systems of NATO’s other allies”, added Mr. Lahue. “NATO is not a sole entity, NATO is a collective of 29 entities. Of course, the US is the most influential state because it is the most influential military force and the question whether the US has an influence – yes, it does, it has economic, political influence, but it is used by other countries as well in benefit of their country, so, it is a mutually beneficial cooperation. This is why a country like Armenia wants to work with NATO based on the benefit it will get from those relations, they are relations which are built on mutual benefit.”

 

According to the speaker, this is a difficult question for Russia to understand as well, which builds its decision still on the basis of the Soviet political culture and continues to present NATO as an enemy, an opposing force which is not true. “It appears NATO is stronger than them? So, if they are stronger, then they are bad? Because they are not equal to them..? Russia builds its foreign policy and national security on the capacity of Russia to control the territories nearby its territories to have the power to provide the stability for Russia, consequently, their objective is to control everything happening in the neighboring countries, not to let neighboring countries make decisions on their own. While NATO sees its security in free, independent and democratic countries able to defend their interests and work with us. This is why NATO becomes a magnet to other countries, because they see a benefit, because that magnet will give them independence guarantees and they will have ensured freedom in their territory regarding the decision they make”, mentioned the Head of the NATO Liaison Office in Georgia/ NATO Liaison Officer in South Caucasus      

 

Emma GABRIELYAN