Turan Information Agency, Azerbaijani Opposition
July 28, 2017 Friday


Political scientist: "Russia will continue to pressure Azerbaijan"


Baku / 07.07.17 / Turan: Tension on the line of contact of Armenian
and Azerbaijani troops, and shelling has acquired a systematic
character. It is not surprising taking into account that the "cold
war" over Karabakh lasts more than 20 years, and there is no progress
in resolving the conflict.

This state of affairs does not suit Azerbaijan, which it clearly
showed in April 2016 during the four-day war, having won part of the
lands seized by the Armenian occupiers. Azerbaijani troops would have
progressed further, if Russia "seriously concerned" with the military
actions between the conflicting sides did not interfere. According to
most political scientists, Russia will continue to support Armenia,
using it as a means of pressure on Azerbaijan, and Russia's actions
after the Sochi meeting of Vladimir Putin and IlhamAliyev confirm
this.

According to political scientist ElkhanShakhinoglu, partnership
relations with Russia is very important, and therefore the periodic
meetings of the two presidents are normal, but further events show the
dissatisfaction of the northern neighbor with the outcome of the
meeting: "I think that Russia tried to achieve certain steps from
Azerbaijan at this meeting. Russia wants obedience from us, wants to
turn us into Kyrgyzstan or Armenia. She wants Azerbaijan to become a
member of the Eurasian Economic Union, it is possible that it is
trying to achieve the deployment of military units on our territory.
However, Russia's desires often run counter to Azerbaijan's national
interests, and these interests dictate that Azerbaijan's energy
resources go to world markets bypassing Russia.

In addition, the northern neighbor does not like that the
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway route will start operating soon and some of
the Azerbaijani goods will bypass Russia to the West. No matter how
much official Baku claims that it wants to maintain normal relations
with Moscow, the wishes of the latter do not correspond to the
national interests of Azerbaijan, and he is forced to refuse to
Russia. Russia does not like this, and starts to make pressure."

The political scientist explained on an example how Russia after the
Sochi meeting is trying to achieve from Azerbaijan the desired: "Let's
turn to the facts. First, the ceasefire violation became more intense,
our soldier was wounded. Secondly, local clashes spread from Karabakh
to the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. Thirdly, Armenian Foreign Minister
Edward Nalbandian went to Karabakhimmediately after the Sochi meeting,
and as if provoking Azerbaijan, he visited the occupied city of
Kelbajar. Fourth, after the meeting in Sochi, the news spread that
Russia through the South Ossetian separatists took control of part of
the Baku-Supsa pipeline. Fifth, the Russian ambassador to Azerbaijan
stated that they are ready to extradite Alexander Lapshin, who
violated the laws of Azerbaijan, to Russia. Sixthly, a few days after
the Sochi meeting, Putin ratified the treaty on the establishment of
joint Russian-Armenian military units, which means that Russia became
the mistress of the Armenian army. If we used to say that Armenian
troops occupied Karabakh, now Russia has become a partner of Armenia
in this. This is confirmed by the words of the Armenian general, who
stated that they can use these combined forces in Karabakh, although
it was previously noted that this is impossible. Objections from
Russia to the words of the Armenian commander did not follow. "

The political scientist also explained the reasons for the fact that
Russia took control of part of the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline:
"Azerbaijani oil, though in small amounts via the Baku-Novorossiysk
oil pipeline, enters the world markets. However, this oil pipeline
does not work even in half its capacity. Then why should Russia take
control of Baku-Supsa? Thus, Russia is trying not to harm Georgia, but
to influence Azerbaijan, because it knows that the main owner of the
pipeline is Baku, which through it sends oil to world markets. I think
that this is one of the ways of putting pressure on Azerbaijan. "

E. Shahinoglu also touched on Lapshin's question: "Lapshin grossly
violated Azerbaijani laws and the statement of the Russian ambassador
about his readiness to extradite him is nothing more than a means of
pressure. Russia thereby wants to say "you held a trial, sentenced
him, and now give it to us." True, Lapshin admitted his guilt at the
trial, but it is possible that in case of extradition to Russia he
will not continue his provocations, he will not become one of the
numerous guests of Yerevan and will not say about "torture" in the
Azerbaijani prison. Personally, I think that we should exchange
Lapshin for Kalbajar hostages. "

The political scientist stated that it is becoming increasingly
difficult for Azerbaijan to conduct a traditional balanced policy:
"Baku is trying to maintain good relations with all its neighbors.
However, if the development and strengthening of the country's
economic, social, military potential goes through integration into
Western structures, Azerbaijan, based on national interests

However, if the development and strengthening of the country's
economic, social, military potential passes through integration into
Western structures, Azerbaijan, based on national interests, must
choose the Western path. Russia, unlike the West, is not interested in
the development of Azerbaijan. However, the Azerbaijani authorities
are afraid that in case of straining relations with Russia, the
Ukrainian and Georgian scenarios will repeat. However, Russia has
already done all the bad things that it could - Karabakh is occupied.
What can they do? I do not say that we should break relations with
Russia. More than one million Azerbaijanis live in this country, our
agricultural products enter its markets. Relations must continue, but
this does not mean that we must fulfill all the wishes of Russia,"E.
Shahinoglu said. -0-