YEREVAN, August 8. /ARKA/. Ruben Safrastyan, the director of the Institute of Oriental Studies, an affiliation of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia, predicted today that the United States is very likely to step up its role in the international efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Speaking at a news conference Safrastyan said it is in the interest of the US to be more active in the Karabakh negotiation process and to strengthen its position in the region, however, he added that no breakthrough should be expected very soon because all the parties understand how complicated this conflict is.

Safrastyan argued that Azerbaijan's refusal to participate in NATO exercises in Georgia may be related to the processes around Nagorno-Karabakh.

"The refusal was a gesture meant for Russia. This way Azerbaijan is trying to probe and strengthen its position," he said.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict erupted into armed clashes after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s as the predominantly Armenian-populated enclave of Azerbaijan sought to secede from Azerbaijan and declared its independence backed by a successful referendum.  On May 12, 1994, the Bishkek cease-fire agreement put an end to the military operations.

A truce was brokered by Russia in 1994, although no permanent peace agreement has been signed. Since then, Nagorno-Karabakh and several adjacent regions have been under the control of Armenian forces of Karabakh.  Nagorno-Karabakh is the longest-running post-Soviet era conflict and has continued to simmer despite the relative peace of the past two decades, with snipers causing tens of deaths a year.

On April 2, 2016, Azerbaijan launched military assaults along the entire perimeter of its contact line with Nagorno-Karabakh. Four days later a cease-fire was reached. —0—