ARMINFO News Agency, Armenia
 Friday


Forecast: Considering that in issue of Iranian gas transit, Serzh
Sargsyan is guided by Moscow`s opinion, there will not be need to
replace it

Yerevan August 11

David Stepanyan. Certainly, in the first turn the issue of transit of
Iranian gas through Armenia to Europe as a geopolitical background.
Director of Armenian Center for Political and International Relations
Aghasi Yenoqyan expressed such an opinion to ArmInfo.

I do not think that there are special economic problems here, since
technically the organization of the transit of Iranian gas through
Armenia to Europe can be solved quite easily. In this sense, I
consider the question of transit in the same plane as the actual lack
of response to the US $ 8 billion investment proposal. All this is
only discussed, and in theory.

"The emergence of transit Iranian gas in Armenia will be a serious
challenge for Gazprom, since the issue will not be in the sphere of
providing gas to Armenia, but in the gas supply of the European
market." This is in the context of Gazprom's longstanding policy of
achieving gas monopoly in Europe "Of course, it should be noted that
in recent years, such prospects have significantly escalated, in
particular, thanks to the US sanctions against Russia," he said.

Nevertheless, talking about the refusal of Moscow from the idea of
becoming a gas monopoly in Europe, and for the sake of
Armenian-Iranian projects, in Yenokyan's view, is premature. The main
problem, according to his estimates, is not even in Tehran, but in the
ability of the Armenian authorities to resolve the eradication of
Gazprom's monopoly in the country. In this light, he believes that
Serzh Sargsyan should still be guided by Moscow's opinion on this
issue. The political scientist believes that Serzh Sargsyan does not
refuse to discuss the establishment of gas transit through the
territory of Armenia, thereby leaving a window of opportunity open for
himself. Moreover, the situation at the global level is heated to the
limit, allowing to hope for the resolution of the issue of Armenian
gas transit in a matter of months. For example, it stipulates the
possibility of Armenia gaining transit functions by significant
changes in the relations between Moscow and Brussels as a result of
the strengthening of the same sanctions regime. According to
Yenokyan's estimates, Serzh Sargsyan is quite capable of sitting in
the prime minister's seat himself. However, with the same success in
this chair after 2018, Karen Karapetyan may remain. The political
scientist is convinced that the main thing for Sargsyan is the
preservation of the sole control over the corruption pyramid in his
hands and if Karapetyan does not show any significant pincushion in
the Prime Minister's chair, Sargsyan will not interfere with the
continuation of his premiership.

"Serzh Sargsyan can only assume the functions of prime minister to
maintain complete control over financial flows in conditions of
minimal responsibility." It is important who Sargsyan himself wants to
see at the post of prime minister, and not someone in Washington,
Brussels and even Moscow. I believe that his current policy puts
Russians in need of his replacement, there is nothing to worry about,
at least until Sargsyan follows their instructions. Therefore, he does
not really need to resist his next re-enactment in power in Moscow
Will be, "concludes Yenokyan.